Fossil fuels ‘may prove worthless’
February 15, 2013 in Economy
EMBARGOED until 0001 GMT on Friday 15 February
By Alex Kirby
A leading UK university is launching a research programme to help businesses and policy-makers to protect themselves from investments which could be left worthless by climate change.
LONDON, 15 February – The University of Oxford has begun a programme of research to identify high-carbon sectors and assets that could be devalued or written off if the world takes resolute action to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.
It seeks to help investors to avoid sinking money in potentially useless assets that might ultimately lose their entire value, turning into what are known as “stranded assets”.
Assets become stranded if they are replaced by greener alternatives or new technologies, or are subject to new regulations or resource constraints.
In 2012 the International Energy Agency said the world was on course for average temperature rises of at least 4°C, double the limit agreed by world governments. So, it said, a significant part of the world’s known fossil fuel stores would have to stay in the ground to fulfil international climate commitments and reduce dangerous impacts.
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has calculated that to reduce the chance of exceeding 2°C warming to 20%, the global carbon budget for 2000-50 is 886 gigatonnes of CO2. Discounting emissions from the first decade of this century leaves a budget of 565 gigatonnes for the remaining 40 years to mid-century.
However, the known fossil fuel reserves declared by energy and mining companies is equivalent to 2,795 gigatonnes of CO2. If the world wants to keep climate change to below 2°C, then, 80% of those reserves can never be burned: they are in fact valueless.
According to the Carbon Tracker Initiative, “this means that governments and global markets are currently treating as assets reserves equivalent to nearly five times the carbon budget for the next 40 years. The investment consequences of using only 20% of these reserves have not yet been assessed.’’
Safer homes for funds
Asset stranding is currently little understood, but the implications are potentially very significant. It could have a direct effect on millions of small savers too, as many universities and pension funds have big investments in hydrocarbon companies (and see our story on 1 February).
The researchers, from Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, will try to find out which assets and sectors are most at risk and how to respond to the challenges.
The former MP John Gummer, now Lord Deben, chairs the Committee on Climate Change, an independent group which advises the UK Government. Speaking at the School, he stressed the need for businesses and policy makers to adapt to the new economic landscape.
He said: “Investors continue to deploy hundreds of billions of pounds into polluting and unsustainable sectors. In many cases these investments will not be worth what investors think.
“Climate change, scarcer resources and new disruptive technologies will reduce value and strand assets. If investors better understand the risks of investing in these assets they will be attracted to greener alternatives and see them as better business propositions and safer places for their funds.”
Professor Gordon Clark, director of the Smith School, said: “We are looking at how changes in regulation, pricing, technology, society and climate could be a risk to a range of polluting assets.. Our new programme is creating a critically important space for these issues to be understood and for appropriate responses to be developed.”
The four-year research programme’s first project is to focus on the international supply chain for the agricultural sector, examining methods of transport and production. Later projects will probably include transport, power generation, real estate and a range of commodities.
The researchers aim to create new tools to understand and manage the risks of asset stranding. They will also analyse investor portfolios to learn about risk exposures and will compile case studies of best practice.
The programme is being supported by Aviva Investors, Bunge Ltd, Climate Change Capital Ltd and HSBC Holdings plc, with non-financial partners including the Carbon Tracker Initiative, Trucost and WWF-UK. – Climate News Network