Global warming threatens colder climate for Europe

Global warming threatens colder climate for Europe

New evidence that increased melting of sea ice as the Earth warms could weaken the Gulf Stream and reduce temperatures in western Europe.

LONDON, 3 July, 2015 – Scientists have yet again warned that weakening ocean circulation in the North Atlantic could deliver a climate paradox − a colder Europe as a consequence of global warming.

A study published in Nature Climate Change found that as sea ice off Iceland and Greenland retreats, the flow of cold, dense water to the bottom of the North Atlantic ocean could be reduced, and therefore weaken the warming effects of the Gulf Stream.

The great submarine current − sometimes called the Atlantic Conveyor − flows south to surface in the tropics as the Gulf Stream, which then flows north again to deliver tropic warmth to European coasts.

However, a slowdown in the natural overturning of the ocean could weaken the Gulf Stream, which in turn could cool the atmosphere over the British Isles and western Europe.

“A warm western Europe requires a cold North Atlantic, and the warming that the North Atlantic is now experiencing has the potential to result in a cooling over Western Europe,” says Kent Moore, a professor of physics at the University of Toronto Mississauga, Canada.

Calamitous change

Such a possible collapse of a natural oceanic system is predicated as one of the irreversible tipping points that could result in calamitous climate change.

Scientists have twice warned in the past six months that such change could be irreversible, unless governments jointly decide to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels by switching to renewable sources of energy.

Another research group reported in March this year on how the changing salinity of the northern ocean waters − because of the increasing flow of meltwater from land-borne glaciers − threatened a weakening of the Atlantic Conveyor.

“The heat exchange is weaker – it’s like turning down the stove 20%”

In the latest study, Professor Moore and colleagues from Norway, the US and the UK looked not at changes in ocean salinity, but at the exchange of heat between sea and air.

Climate is driven by contrasts, and the flow of heat between water and wind in winter has weakened by around 20% since 1979. The Arctic is the fastest-warming region of the planet, and changes in the polar climate can have dramatic consequences for the temperate zones.

Prof Moore and his colleagues looked at wintertime data from the Iceland and Greenland Seas between 1958 and 2014, then used computer simulations to model potential changes to the Conveyor − more formally known to oceanographers and climate scientists as the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation.

Cold and salty

The warm current loses its heat to the atmosphere as it moves north, and water that is both cold and salty is denser and more likely to descend.

The most effective place for such a process to happen is at the edge of the sea ice. If the sea ice retreats, then so does the region of maximum heat exchange. For the past 10,000 years or so, this heat exchange has happened at the ideal spot for surface waters to sink. Any change might not be for the better.

The Gulf Stream is the agency that makes Britain, for example, about 5°C warmer than Labrador in Canada, on the same latitude. A British government chief scientific adviser once calculated that the Gulf Stream delivered the warmth of 27,000 power stations. So if it weakens, Europe could start to feel the chill.

“The heat exchange is weaker – it’s like turning down the stove 20%,” Prof Moore says. “We believe the weakening will continue and eventually cause changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Gulf Stream, which can impact the climate of Europe.” – Climate News Network

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Greenhouse gas-guzzlers spurn extra carbon dioxide

Greenhouse gas-guzzlers spurn extra carbon dioxide

Minutely small marine plants called diatoms mitigate climate change by consuming carbon dioxide and producing oxygen. But they may reject the rising levels of the greenhouse gas.

LONDON, 1 July, 2015 – Diatoms – those tiny ocean-dwelling photosynthesisers that produce a fifth of the planet’s oxygen each year – may not gulp down more carbon dioxide more enthusiastically as greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere continue to rise.

Instead, they may switch off and use the gas more efficiently. If so, the consequences for the rest of the planet could be uncomfortable.

Climate scientists who try to model the machinery of the atmosphere have always banked on a “fertilisation effect” from at least some of the extra CO2 pumped into the atmosphere by the human burning of fossil fuels and the clearance of the forests. They may no longer be able to do so.

The discovery – reported in Nature Climate Change – is based on laboratory experiments with one single-celled phytoplankton species called Thalassiosira pseudonana and meticulous study of its genetic mechanisms.

Rising concentrations

It may not be a sure guide to what actually happens in the crowded, complex world of climate change later this century. But all phytoplankton are survivors of the same evolutionary history, and many of them are known to be equipped with carbon-concentrating mechanisms to make the most of the available carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. So what happens to one could be true for all.

Gwenn Hennon, an oceanographer at the University of Washington in Seattle, US, and colleagues decided to work out what happened to their laboratory diatoms in atmospheres in which carbon dioxide levels continued to rise to 800 parts per million later this century.

Right now, the concentration is almost 400 parts per million, but for most of human history until the invention of the internal combustion engine, and the exploitation of fossil fuels, it has been around 280 parts per million. A third of the emissions from factory chimneys and motor exhausts is absorbed by living things in the oceans, starting with diatoms and other phytoplankton.

The Seattle team found that while many photosynthesisers do grow faster with more CO2, the oceanic diatoms did not: they responded vigorously at first, but as long as there was a normal supply of other nutrients, over 15 generations, they slowed down.

Slow response

“There are certain genes that respond right away to a change in CO2, but the change in the metabolism doesn’t actually happen until you give the diatoms some time to acclimate,” said Hennon, a doctoral student. “Instead of using that energy from the CO2 to grow faster, they just stopped harvesting as much energy from light through photosynthesis and carried out less respiration.”

Studies like this are an illustration of the intricacy and complexity of climate science. How the living world responds to greater human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels is key to all models of future climates, but researchers in general have expected the plant world to respond by consuming more, and slowing the rate of change overall.

There is some evidence that this is happening. Half of all the anthropogenic or human-made CO2 has been gulped down in the form of more lusty growth by vegetation, but this “negative feedback” effect has been countered by other factors: more greenery in the Arctic, for instance, could accelerate global warming, and anyway, as plants grow more vigorously, so do plant predators.

And increasingly, climate scientists have begun to realise that although the responses of the forests and arid lands  are vital factors, the big players could be the creatures hardly anyone ever sees: the fungi and tiny fauna in the soil  beneath the trees, and of course the phytoplankton in the oceans.

Oxygen creators

The Seattle calculation is that the evolutionary history of the diatoms explains the carbon-concentrating mechanisms in their genetic inheritance. Microbes are life’s foundation, and single-celled creatures evolved over three billion years when CO2 levels in the atmosphere were at colossal concentrations.

The diatoms and their ancestors were the creatures that created the oxygen atmosphere in which all other complex living things evolved. An enzyme evolved to help the first microbes cope with high levels of CO2, and has survived for billions of years.

“There hasn’t been another enzyme to replace it since, so plants and algae that photosynthesise have an enzyme that functions better at a higher CO2 level than we currently have,” Hennon said.

“When the CO2 remains high for a long time, however, the diatoms make a more radical metabolic shift. They decrease photosynthesis and respiration to balance the cell’s energy budget. In other words, the diatoms use less energy to grow at the same rate.” – Climate News Network

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Alaska’s glaciers melt faster as climate change speeds up

Alaska's glaciers melt faster as climate change speeds up

Climate change rather than natural causes is the main cause of Alaska’s glacier loss, which is set to speed up, US scientists say.

LONDON, 30 June, 2015 – The glaciers of Alaska are melting and retreating: the chief cause is climate change and the loss of ice is unlikely to slow, according to a new study by US scientists.

They calculate that the frozen rivers of the Pacific coast of America’s northernmost state are melting fast enough to cover the whole of Alaska with 30 cms of water every seven years.

Since Alaska is enormous – it covers 1.5 million square kilometres and is the size of California, Texas and Montana put together – this adds up to a significant contribution to sea level rise.

“The Alaska region has long been considered a primary player in the global sea level budget, but the exact details of the drivers and mechanisms of Alaska glacier change have been stubbornly elusive,” said Chris Larsen, a geophysicist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and lead author of a study in Geophysical Research Letters.

Taxonomy of change

Scientists from the University of Alaska and the US Geological Survey analysed studies of 116 glaciers in the Alaska region over a 19-year-period to estimate the rate at which ice melted and icebergs calved.

They used airborne lidar remote sensing technology and other techniques, historical data and a global glacier inventory to establish a kind of taxonomy of glacier change.

The Columbia Glacier in Prince William Sound had retreated more than 19 kilometres because of iceberg calving and had thinned by 450 meters in height since 1980. But, unexpectedly, tidewater glaciers – those that end in the ocean – seemed to make comparatively little contribution to sea level rise.

“Instead we show that glaciers ending on land are losing mass exceptionally fast, overshadowing mass changes due to iceberg calving, and making climate-related melting the primary control on mountain glacier mass loss,” Dr Larsen said.

Big contributor

He and his colleagues calculated that Alaska is losing ice at the rate of 75 billion metric tons a year. Such research is just one more piece of careful cross-checking in the great mosaic of climate research: another systematic confirmation that overall, glaciers are not losing ice in response to some natural cycle of change of the kind that occasionally confuses the picture for climate science.

The agency at work is largely global warming as a response to the steady rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide as a consequence of the burning of fossil fuels.

Mountain glaciers represent only 1% of the total ice on the planet: the other 99% is found in Greenland – which is melting fast – and in the great frozen continent of Antarctica, where ice mass is being lost at an increasing rate.

But although the mountains of the temperate and tropic zones bear only a tiny percentage of the planet’s ice, their melting accounts for almost a third of the sea level rise currently measured by oceanographers, and this melting will go on to become a big contributor to the sea levels later this century.

“Alaska will continue to be a major driver of sea level change in the upcoming decades”

Across the border in Canada, glaciologists have warned that the country will lose a huge volume of flowing ice, and while one team has confirmed that air pollution rather than global warming long ago began to strip Europe’s Alps of their glaciers, in general mountain peaks are warming faster than the valleys and plains below them.

Geophysicists and glaciologists have established that the glaciers of the tropical Andes are at risk, and in the Himalayan mountain chain glaciers seem to be in inexorable retreat with consequences that could be devastating for the many millions in the Indian subcontinent and in China who rely on seasonal meltwater for agriculture.

Glaciers are by definition hard to study – they are high, cold and in dangerous terrain – and such research is inevitably incomplete: the scientists for instance excluded glaciers smaller than three square kilometres. But together these small patches of flowing ice account for 16% of Alaska’s glaciated landscape. The 116 glaciers in the survey together added up to only 41% of the state’s glaciated area.

But the pattern established by the Fairbanks team suggests that melting will accelerate with climate change. “Rates of loss from Alaska are unlikely to decline, since surface melt is the predominant driver, and summer temperatures are expected to increase,” said Dr Larsen.

“There is a lot of momentum in the system, and Alaska will continue to be a major driver of sea level change in the upcoming decades.” – Climate News Network

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Stress on water resources threatens lives and livelihoods

Stress on water resources threatens lives and livelihoods

Satellite data raises red-flag warning about the draining of underground aquifers to meet the demands of expanding populations.

LONDON, 29 June, 2015 – The planet’s great subterranean stores of water are running out – and nobody can be sure how much remains to supply billions of people in the future.

Satellite instruments used to measure the flow from 37 underground aquifers between 2003 and 2013 have revealed that at least one-third of them were seriously stressed – with little or almost no natural replenishment.

The research was conducted by scientists from California and the US space agency NASA, who report in the journal Water Resources Research that they used data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites to calculate what is happening to aquifers.

The two satellites measure variations in the gravitational pull of the planet’s surface, and have already revealed changes in the mass of ice sheets on the planetary surface. But buried water, too, has mass, and changes in the mass of bedrock in known aquifer regions would therefore offer a guide to depletion.

Driest regions

Not surprisingly, the researchers found that those regions that are already driest were drawing most heavily on the groundwater below the surface.

The Arabian aquifer system, − the principal water source for 60 million people − is the worst stressed, followed by the Indus Basin of north-west India and Pakistan, and then the Murzuk-Djado basin in northern Africa.

The scientists warn that climate change – a consequence of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions from the human combustion of fossil fuels – and population growth will make things worse.

“What happens when a highly-stressed aquifer is located in a region with socioeconomic or political tensions that can’t supplement declining water supplies fast enough?” asks Alexandra Richey, who conducted the research as a University of California Irvine doctoral student. “We’re trying to raise red flags now to pinpoint where active management today could protect future lives and livelihoods.”

“We can no longer tolerate this level of uncertainty, especially since groundwater
is disappearing so rapidly”

Her colleague, hydrologist James Famiglietti, identified his own home state of California as a cause for concern because it is in the grip of an extended drought that threatens agriculture.

“As we’re seeing in California right now, we rely much more heavily on groundwater during drought,” he says. “When examining the sustainability of a region’s water resources, we absolutely must account for that dependence.”

Groundwater accumulates slowly in the underlying bedrock over millennia. There is no problem if it is withdrawn slowly, but human population has exploded threefold in one human lifetime, and water use has risen even faster.

Supply problem

Research like this is a demonstration of ways to address a supply problem − but there is more work to be done.

In a second study in Water Resources Research, the same team examined the challenge of trying to calculate the rates at which aquifers are being emptied, and the uncertainties as to how much might remain in them.

In the Northwest Sahara, for instance, estimates of the projected “time to depletion” varied from 10 years to 21,000 years. “In a water-scarce society,” Richey says, “we can no longer tolerate this level of uncertainty, especially since groundwater is disappearing so rapidly.”

Professor Famiglietti concludes: “I believe we need to explore the world’s aquifers as if they had the same value as oil reserves. We need to drill for water in the same way that we drill for other resources.” – Climate News Network

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Renewable energy redoubles its global reach

Renewable energy redoubles its global reach

As the world economy and energy use both grew in 2014, renewables continued their rapid rise but carbon emissions did not. 

LONDON, 27 June, 2015 − A significant threshold has been crossed by renewable energy as analysts report that the sectorʼs size last year reached double the level it was at just 10 years earlier.

This expansion happened in a year when the global economy and energy use both grew, but without a matching rise in emissions of carbon dioxide − the main greenhouse gas targeted in efforts to restrain global warming.

The report by REN21, a global renewable energy policy network, says the result is an example of sustainable development. Despite the worldʼs annual 1.5% increase in energy consumption in recent years and 3% GDP growth last year, 2014ʼs CO emissions were unchanged from 2013ʼs total of 32.3 billion tonnes.

The reportʼs authors say this decoupling of economic and CO growth is due to Chinaʼs increased use of renewables and to efforts by OECD countries to promote more sustainable growth, including by increased energy efficiency and use of renewable energy.

“Renewable energy and improved energy efficiency are key to limiting global warming to 2°C and avoiding dangerous climate change,” says Arthouros Zervos, who chairs REN21.

Distorting subsidies

Solar, wind and other technologies, including large hydro-electric schemesused in 164 countries added another 135 Gigawatts last year to bring the worldʼs total installed renewable energy power capacity to 1,712 GW. This was 8.5% up on 2013, and more than double the 800 GW of capacity recorded in 2004. One GW can power between 750,000 and one million typical US homes.

The authors say the sectorʼs growth could be even greater were it not for more than US$550 bn paid out in annual subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy. They say the subsidies keep the prices for energy from these fuels artificially low, encouraging wasteful use and hindering competition.

Infographic: REN21

Christine Lins, executive secretary of REN21, says: “Creating a level playing field would strengthen the development and use of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. Removing fossil fuel and hidden nuclear subsidies globally would make it evident that renewables are the cheapest energy option.”

By the end of 2014, renewables comprised an estimated 27.7% of the worldʼs power generating capacity − enough to supply an estimated 22.8% of global electricity demand.

The amount of electricity available from renewables worldwide is now greater than that produced by all coal-burning plants in the US. Coal supplied about 38% of US electricity in 2013, compared with around 50% in the early 2000s.

Solar photovoltaic capacity has had a rapid 68-fold growth, from 2.6 GW in 2004 to 177 GW in 2014, while wind power capacity has increased eightfold, from 48 GW in 2004 to 370 GW in 2014. Employment in the sector is also growing fast, with an estimated 7.7m people worldwide working directly or indirectly on renewable energy last year.

Outpacing fossil fuels

New investment globally in renewable power capacity was more than twice that of investment in net fossil fuel power capacity, continuing the trend of renewables outpacing fossil fuels in net investment for the fifth year running.

Investment in developing countries was up 36% from the previous year, to $131.3 bn. It came closer than ever to overtaking the investment total for developed economies, which reached $138.9 bn in 2014 − up only 3% from 2013.

China accounted for 63% of developing country investment, with Chile, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey each investing more than $1bn. By dollars spent, the leading countries for investment were China, the US, Japan, the UK and Germany. Leading countries for investments relative to per capita GDP were Burundi, Kenya, Honduras, Jordan and Uruguay.

But REN21 points out that more than a billion people − 15% of humanity − still lack access to electricity, and the entire African continent has less power generation capacity than Germany.

The report says that off-grid solar PV has “a significant and growing market presence”, and other distributed renewable energy technologies are improving life in remote off-grid areas.

However, it stresses that this growth rate is still not enough to achieve the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) goals of doubling renewable energy and energy efficiency, and providing universal access for all by 2030. − Climate News Network

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Prospect of warmer winters doesn’t mean fewer deaths

Prospect of warmer winters doesn’t mean fewer deaths

New scientific study pours cold water on the theory that mortality rates will drop in winter months as the climate warms.

LONDON, 26 June, 2015 − Global warming is unlikely to mean that fewer people in northern latitudes will die from cold during the winter, according to a study by scientists in the US.

Despite arguments that an increase in death rates caused by global warming and increased summertime temperatures will be offset by a matching drop in mortality as winter temperatures also rise, the study cautions against assuming any such link as research suggests otherwise.

The study, carried out over several years, looked at temperature-related seasonal mortality rates, particularly among elder people, in a total of 39 cities – the majority in the US, and three in France.

It concludes: “Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality rates under a warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed.”

The research, carried out by a team led by Professor Patrick Kinney, a specialist in public health at the Columbia University Earth Institute in the US, is published in the Environmental Research Letters journal.

Temperature range

“We found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range and was no lower in warmer vs colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality,” the study says.

Although the researchers acknowledge that seasonal temperature patterns can have an effect on health, many other factors influence mortality rates in winter among elderly people.

Diseases such as influenza – often transmitted when younger generations of families meet up with their elders at family celebrations – play a far greater role in mortality than the cold.

“Most older people who die over the winter don’t die from cold – they die from complications related to ’flu and other respiratory diseases,”  Kinney says.

Most previous studies investigating the links between temperature rises and death rates have focused on the impact of summer heat.

“Most older people who die over the winter don’t die from cold – they die from complications
related to respiratory diseases”

A prolonged heatwave across Europe in 2003 – which many scientists say can be attributed to climate change – is believed to have caused between 30,000 and 50,000 deaths. Elderly people in urban areas – often left stranded in their baking apartment blocks – were particularly badly hit.

A lot of media attention has also been given recently to the high rates of death among migrant workers from Nepal working in high temperatures in Qatar and other countries in the Gulf region.

The Columbia study looked at winter death rates among elderly people in cities in different climate zones and with differing demographics – from Paris and New York to Miami and Marseilles.

Opposite effect

It found that most of the elderly people living in the cities from which data was gathered were not exposed to the winter cold for long periods as the majority had access to a warm indoor environment.

Kinney says that rather than decreasing mortality, warmer winters could have the opposite effect.

“We see mosquito-borne diseases emerging in new territories because warmer winter temperatures enable the insects to over-winter in more northerly regions,” he says.

“Warmer temperatures can also enable an insect-borne virus to replicate inside the insect vector to be transmitted and cause disease in a human or animal.

“Sadly, this research tells us that an increase in summer deaths due to climate change is unlikely to be counteracted by a reduction in winter deaths.” – Climate News Network

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Court tells Dutch government it must cut back emissions

Court tells Dutch government it must cut back emissions

In a landmark ruling, the law has stepped in to demand that the Netherlands does more to tackle the imminent danger of climate change.

LONDON, 25 June, 2015 – A Dutch court has made history by ordering the Netherlands government to make deeper cuts than it is planning in its emissions of greenhouse gases.

The district court in The Hague − in its landmark legal requirement that a state should take precautions against climate change − said the government must “do more to avert the imminent danger caused by climate change”.

The court ruled that the Netherlands should, by 2020, reduce its CO2 emissions by at least 25% on their 1990 levels. The government is planning cuts of around 16%, but Denmark and Germany are already on course to cut their CO2 emissions by 40% by 2020.

The case was brought by the Urgenda Foundation – an NGO focused on the transition towards a sustainable society using only renewable energy − and nearly 900 co-plaintiffs.

Already suffering

Marjan Minnesma, director of Urgenda, said: “Millions of people who are already suffering the consequences of climate change are hoping that we, the people that have caused the emissions and have the means to reduce them, will intervene while there is still time.”

Comparable legal cases are being prepared in Belgium, Norway, the Philippines and Peru.

Urgenda says its arguments are supported by the Oslo Principles, which say that states have the legal obligation to avert dangerous climate change.

Carroll Muffett, the president and CEO of the Centre for International Environmental Law, said: “At the heart of this landmark case lies a simple, terrible truth: in failing to take ambitious action to confront climate change, the government of the Netherlands is threatening the lives, the well-being and the human rights of its own citizens.”

He added: “The case reflects a growing awareness among people worldwide that the failure to act on climate change violates fundamental principles of human rights.”

It is a precedent-setting judgement, though I think in a year or so it will not seem at all exceptional

Professor Muffett told the Climate News Network that the judgement was especially significant for what the court had said about human rights, and about the responsibility the Dutch government owed to future generations.

“A decision of this kind from any court sends an important signal,” he said. “States and polluters should take careful note.

“There is a growing movement of climate litigation around the world, a challenge to inertia. Climate change cannot wait.

Extremely careful

“The ruling is extremely careful, thoughtful − and narrow. It says the risks of acting to mitigate climate change are less than the risks of trying to adapt to it, and it insists that the Dutch government has a duty to mitigate it.

“It is a precedent-setting judgement, though I think in a year or so it will not seem at all exceptional.”

Some thought the court had not gone far enough. Wendel Trio, director of Climate Action Network Europe, said: “The task specified by the ruling is not too challenging. The target should be much higher than 25% in order to be truly in line with what is needed to tackle climate change.”

However, Professor Muffett thinks the judgement will be hugely influential. He said: “Governments, especially in Europe, will be going to the UN’s Paris climate negotiations in November very cognisant of what this court has said. The context on the road to Paris is changing fast.” – Climate News Network

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Global warming is accelerating loss of species

Global warming is accelerating loss of species

Human-induced climate change adds to threats vertebrates face from hunting and habitat loss as researchers warn that modern extinction rates are exceptionally high.

LONDON, 24 June, 2015 – Biologists have once again confirmed their own worst fears – that humans have launched a new phase of mass extinction.

There have been five catastrophic episodes in the 500 million-year history of complex life, and humanity has now precipitated a sixth, according to a new study.

Gerardo Ceballos, a researcher in the Department of Ecology Biodiversity at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, and colleagues report in the journal Science Advances that their calculations are based on the most conservative possible estimates of extinction in recent human history.

They compared those with the calculated “background”, or normal, rate of extinction throughout evolution, and came to the conclusion that vertebrate species are slipping away into the eternal night at least 114 times faster than they would if there were no humans around to hunt them, destroy their habitats or change the climates in which they had evolved.

Potentially calamitous

All such stories fall into the “stop me if youʼve heard this one” category. For more than two decades, zoologists in particular have repeatedly warned of potential calamitous extinction rates.

They have reasoned that the pressures already driving down animal populations are likely to be made worse by global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels – either by moving the climatic zones to which the creatures are adapted faster than they can migrate, or by simply becoming too warm overall, which is something that happened 55 million years ago.

One recent study even linked atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide with the worst event of all, the “Great Dying” of the Permian period 252 million years ago.

“We can confidently conclude that modern extinction rates . . . suggest a mass extinction
is under way”

But there has always been a problem of numbers – in fact, two problems of numbers. Biologists have no sure idea of how many species inhabit the planet today, and they have great difficulty establishing that any particular animal is really extinct, as opposed to just rare and difficult to identify.

So Dr Ceballos and his co-researchers went back and did the sums again, working from a recent estimate of the background rate of extinction of two mammal extinctions per 10,000 species per century.

They looked at all the written evidence for recent extinctions – the dodo of Mauritius, Steller’s sea cow, the Rodrigues giant tortoise, and all the other amphibians, birds, reptiles, fish and mammals that have slipped away to oblivion, first since 1500 and then since 1900. And the researchers then chose conservative and highly conservative calculations of loss.

Creatures vanishing

They found that, even using the most generous estimates of “normal” extinction, and the most highly conservative calculations of present loss, based on data from the 2014 International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red Listthey had evidence that creatures are now vanishing at more than 100 times the background rate.

Almost all human health and wealth is based on what grows in the ground or grazes upon it. If the loss goes on, then within as little as three human lifetimes, humanity as a species could be deprived, the researchers warn, of “many biodiversity benefits”.

With this research, they say they have placed a “lower bound” on humanity’s impact on all other living things.

They conclude: “Although biologists cannot say precisely how many species there are, or exactly how many have gone extinct in any time interval, we can confidently conclude that modern extinction rates are exceptionally high, that they are increasing, and that they suggest a mass extinction is under way – the sixth of its kind in Earth’s 4.5 billion years of history.” – Climate News Network

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New flood alert as warming raises sea levels threat

New flood alert as warming raises sea levels threat

Scientists warn countries in northern Europe to plan for dramatic new worst-case scenarios as climate change increases the risk of seas sweeping inland.

LONDON, 22 June, 2015 − Europe could face a higher marine invasion than anybody anticipated. As polar ice melts, tides could be as much as 1.5 metres higher around the coasts of Scandinavia, Germany, the Netherlands and England, according to a new study.

This is considerably higher than the average sea level rise – driven by global warming as a consequence of burning fossil fuels – projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change under a “business as usual” scenario and a global average temperature rise of 4°C.

But there is no contradiction. The discrepancy arises because the seas have never been level, and the land keeps moving too.

Aslak Grinsted, associate professor in the Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute of the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, and colleagues report in the journal Climate Research that they took a closer look at the dynamics of sea level change in the North Sea, the North Atlantic and the Baltic for the remainder of this century.

Land uplift

“Even though the oceans are rising, they do not rise evenly across the globe,” Dr Grinsted says. “This is partly due to changes in the gravitational field and land uplift.”

He and his colleagues started with the anomalies they knew best. These are in Greenland, which is covered by a sheet of ice so massive that it gathers up the sea around it. So, to reach Greenland, ships must sail uphill.

As the ice sheet melts – and there are studies that show it is melting at an accelerating rate that would heighten sea levels by 14 cms this century – the mass will be reduced and the sea levels will fall, even though more water has entered the oceans.

“In England . . . we cannot exclude a sea level rise of up to 1.75 metres this century”

But although waters are notionally lapping ever higher along coastlines, these too are changing. Northern Europe 12,000 years ago was covered by deep ice, and the bedrock below was depressed. Now the ice has gone, but the land once crushed by it is still rising.

Equipped with the latest research and measurements, the Copenhagen team began their reinterpretation of the local future. They found that what had once been considered “high” scenarios for the Netherlands and England will be surpassed.

Best estimate

Dr Grinsted says: “For London, the calculated best estimate is that sea level will rise by 0.8 metres. In England, a sea level rise of more than 0.9 meters in this century has been considered highly unlikely, but our new calculation shows that there is a 27% chance that this limit is surpassed, and we cannot exclude a sea level rise of up to 1.75 metres this century.”

For the Netherlands, the best estimate of sea level rise is 0.83 metres, but the calculations show that there is a 26% chance that it will exceed the existing high-end scenario of 1.05 metres, and could even reach 1.80 metres.

Dr Grinsted says: “Both countries have already established protections for the coasts with barriers, sluice gates and dikes, but is it enough? I hope that our calculations for worst-case scenarios will be taken into consideration as the countries prepare for climate change.”

The IPCC sea level projection is of 80 cms worldwide. Sea levels overall might change little in Scotland, Ireland and Norway. And in the Gulf of Bothnia, in Finland, where the land is rising even faster than the sea, tides could be as much as 10cms lower at the end of the century. − Climate News Network

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Health sector needs firmer EU hand on climate change

Health sector needs firmer EU hand on climate change

Healthcare systems require tighter rules as the European Union seeks to cut climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions. 

LONDON, 21 June, 2015 − Hospitals and other health institutions should be obliged by the European Union to act more rigorously in combating climate change, a lobby group says.

The EU’s healthcare sector plays a major role in Europe’s economy – it accounts for up to 10% of gross domestic product in many countries.

Healthcare also accounts for a big slice of the EU’s output of greenhouse gases: the  15,000+ hospitals within the EU’s borders create a large carbon footprint.

report by Health Care Without Harm (HCWH) – a non-profit Europe-wide coalition of medical practitioners and those involved in running hospitals and other health concerns – says that if the EU is to meet its carbon reduction targets in the coming years, rules governing the running of hospitals and other public bodies must be tightened.

“The public healthcare sector has the capacity to make significant contributions towards emission reductions and serve as a ‘launching customer’ for clean and energy-efficient products, services, works and buildings”, says the HCWH.

Crucial choices

The report says healthcare in many EU countries represents the largest portion of purchasing power in the public sector.

“Therefore the choice that public entities make when procuring services or buildings is important in reducing their carbon footprint.”

When equipment procurement and other supply factors are taken into account, hospitals alone account for approximately 5% of the EU’s carbon dioxide emissions, says the HCWH.

The EU has set itself a mandatory target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% over 1990 levels by 2020, with a further reduction to 40% over 1990 levels by 2030.

Although HCWH says the various EU directives promoting energy efficiency and moves towards renewables and cleaner energy are helping in the battle against climate change, it asks Brussels to play a more proactive role.

Killer heat

At present the emission reduction target for 2030 applies on an EU-wide basis: the HCWH says making the target applicable to each country would make it much more effective.

The report says the evidence linking climate change and bad health is growing: it quotes statistics compiled by the World Health Organisation estimating that, in the period 2030 to 2050, climate change will account for approximately 250,000 additional deaths each year around the world due to malnutrition, malaria, dengue fever, diarrhoea and heat stress.

The report says greater attention has to be given to constructing more energy-efficient buildings across the EU health sector: there should also be more emphasis on renewable heating systems and moves towards cleaner fuels.

HCWH says that while a €315 billion investment stimulus package announced by the EU in late 2014 is likely to help modernise electricity networks and build greater energy efficiency, Brussels needs to put more resources into making sure energy savings projects are properly implemented and monitored.

Individual governments within the EU should also give financial incentives to better, more energy-efficient procurement policies in their healthcare systems. − Climate News Network

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