Extreme weather puts Africa’s food security at risk

Extreme weather puts Africa's food security at risk

A British government scientific panel says increasingly frequent heat waves, droughts and other extreme weather threaten more – and more severe – global food crises.

LONDON, 15 August, 2015 – Developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa which depend heavily on food imports will be worst hit by the increasingly extreme global weather, a report says, with the Middle East and North Africa also threatened, in this case by social unrest.

In contrast, the authors say the impact on the world’s biggest economies is likely to be muted. But they think a serious crisis could occur as soon as 2016, with repercussions in many countries.

They write: We present evidence that the global food system is vulnerable to production shocks caused by extreme weather, and that this risk is growing…preliminary analysis of limited existing data suggests that the risk of a 1-in-100 year production shock is likely to increase to 1-in-30 or more by 2040.”

The report was jointly commissioned by the UKs Foreign and Commonwealth Office and its Government Science and Innovation Network, with a foreword by the countrys former chief government scientist, Sir David King.

He writes: We know that the climate is changing and weather records are being broken all the time…The food system we increasingly rely on is a global enterprise. Up to now its been pretty robust and extreme weather has had limited impact on a global scale. But…the risks are serious and should be a cause for concern…

Likely scenarios

We should be looking carefully at even very low probability situations, and the likelihood of the scenarios suggested in this report are far too significant to ignore.”

The report says the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates that by 2050 global food demand will be 60% above todays, with per capita demand also growing, and more meat-eating.

In 2007/8 a small weather-related production shock, coupled with historically low stock levels, led to rapid food price inflation in the main internationally traded grains, as measured by the FAO Food Price Index.

Prices rose by over 100%. A similar price spike occurred in 2010/11, partly driven by the weather in eastern Europe and Russia.

In 2012, the worst drought to hit the American Midwest for half a century triggered comparable spikes in international maize and soya prices. There is good evidence, the report says, that extreme weather events, from intense storms to droughts and heat waves, are increasing significantly.

Food production of the globally most important commodity crops (maize, soya, wheat and rice) comes from a small number of major producing countries.

Multiple failure

Simultaneous extreme weather events in two or more of these regions – creating a multiple bread basket failure – would represent a serious production shock. There is an urgent need to understand the driving dynamics of linked problems such as the El Niño effect – which may be becoming more extreme – the report says.

By examining production shocks in the recent past, the authors devised what they call a plausible worst case scenario” – a simultaneous drought affecting maize and soya production, and another which damages wheat and rice harvests.

More topically, they also describe what they say is a plausible worst case scenario for 2016. This involves a complex sequence, starting with a disappointing 2015 Indian monsoon, the loss of much of 2016s Black Sea winter wheat crop, and then Russian and Ukrainian export bans.

International wheat prices rise fast, prompting similar measures in south and central Asia and Argentina, and repercussions as far afield as China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Morocco.

In late spring a persistent drought starts in North America, affecting soya and maize forecasts and prices. Then a heatwave and drought hit the European wheat crop, leading to further rises across all cereals.

Panicked markets

In early summer a second failure of the Indian monsoon unleashes panic in the rice market, where Asian households have been steadily hoarding. Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Egypt and Nepal impose export restrictions.

Major importers such as Nigeria, Malaysia and the Philippines place orders far above normal levels in a bid to calm domestic markets. The scenario ends with still more countries
– Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia – imposing export bans.

One of the reports recommendations is that agriculture should adapt to a changing climate.

That, it says, means productivity must be increased by reversing declines in yield growth and closing the gap between actual and attainable yields in the developing world, while also reducing agricultures environmental impact, including the depletion of fresh water and the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

However, it says, given the increasing risk of extreme weather, this cannot come at the expense of production resilience. – Climate News Network

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UK’s leading scientists urge immediate climate action

UK scientists urge immediate climate action

The pre-eminent institutions in British science and engineering – some with long records of promoting fossil fuels – say the UK should lead the way to a zero carbon world. 

LONDON, 23 July, 2015 – Twenty-four of Britain’s most learned scientific societies have joined forces to urge the British government to act now to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

They want the UK to take the lead in intergovernmental talks in Paris in December, and keep global warming to an average of 2°C this century.

The societies want drastic reductions in the burning of fossil fuels, a shift towards energy efficiency and renewable sources of energy, and other changes to sidestep damaging climate change as a consequence of the atmospheric build-up of carbon dioxide.

A joint communiqué agreed by organisations that speak for the most advanced research in the humanities, the social sciences, the arts, science, medicine and engineering urges action by governments, individuals, business, local communities and public institutions, to make the transition to a zero carbon world.

That any of the institutions has signed the communiqué is no surprise: many of them have delivered such advice separately, and some of them many times. What is significant about this latest statement is that all sorts of scholarly authorities with quite different origins have been united in one unequivocal statement.

Hydrocarbon pioneers

The Geological Society of London, for instance, the oldest such in the world, is backed by the fossil fuel industry and has sponsored petroleum, gas and coal prospecting and exploitation for much of its 200-year history.

The Royal Society of Chemistry was an intellectual centre for scientists and industrialists who pioneered the use of hydrocarbons derived from stores of crude oil and seams of coal.

The Royal Society provided intellectual support for the scientists who made the Industrial Revolution possible – and then endorsed the conclusions by a new generation that first identified the dangers inherent in atmospheric pollution, and then began systematically measuring the cost to the planet’s environment of such advances.

The signatories also include the Institutions of Civil Engineers and Chemical Engineers, members of which played a powerful role in the spread and advance of a fossil-fuel burning economy, as well as the Zoological Society of London, which has been more concerned with protecting the wildlife at risk from human activity, and the Royal Meteorological Society,  whose members have identified, measured and projected all the evidence of climate change.

“At or above 4°C, the risks include…fundamental changes to human activities that today are taken for granted”

Calling on the British government to show leadership on climate action, when the world’s nations meet in Paris in December to try once more to reach an enforceable agreement on cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, Lord Stern, the President of the British Academy, said: “The UK led the world with both the modern scientific revolution and the industrial revolution, and must again lead now on the creation of a safer, cleaner and more prosperous world.

“Tackling climate change is a responsibility for the whole world, but the UK has a special position at the forefront of international efforts.”

The communiqué points out that while climate change poses far-reaching threats, the ways in which humankind tackles the issue present great opportunity, with vast potential for innovation in low-carbon technologies.

But not to take action could be catastrophic. “At or above 4°C, the risks include species extinction, global and regional food insecurity, and fundamental changes to human activities that today are taken for granted,” the communiqué says. – Climate News Network

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Stress on water resources threatens lives and livelihoods

Stress on water resources threatens lives and livelihoods

Satellite data raises red-flag warning about the draining of underground aquifers to meet the demands of expanding populations.

LONDON, 29 June, 2015 – The planet’s great subterranean stores of water are running out – and nobody can be sure how much remains to supply billions of people in the future.

Satellite instruments used to measure the flow from 37 underground aquifers between 2003 and 2013 have revealed that at least one-third of them were seriously stressed – with little or almost no natural replenishment.

The research was conducted by scientists from California and the US space agency NASA, who report in the journal Water Resources Research that they used data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites to calculate what is happening to aquifers.

The two satellites measure variations in the gravitational pull of the planet’s surface, and have already revealed changes in the mass of ice sheets on the planetary surface. But buried water, too, has mass, and changes in the mass of bedrock in known aquifer regions would therefore offer a guide to depletion.

Driest regions

Not surprisingly, the researchers found that those regions that are already driest were drawing most heavily on the groundwater below the surface.

The Arabian aquifer system, − the principal water source for 60 million people − is the worst stressed, followed by the Indus Basin of north-west India and Pakistan, and then the Murzuk-Djado basin in northern Africa.

The scientists warn that climate change – a consequence of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions from the human combustion of fossil fuels – and population growth will make things worse.

“What happens when a highly-stressed aquifer is located in a region with socioeconomic or political tensions that can’t supplement declining water supplies fast enough?” asks Alexandra Richey, who conducted the research as a University of California Irvine doctoral student. “We’re trying to raise red flags now to pinpoint where active management today could protect future lives and livelihoods.”

“We can no longer tolerate this level of uncertainty, especially since groundwater
is disappearing so rapidly”

Her colleague, hydrologist James Famiglietti, identified his own home state of California as a cause for concern because it is in the grip of an extended drought that threatens agriculture.

“As we’re seeing in California right now, we rely much more heavily on groundwater during drought,” he says. “When examining the sustainability of a region’s water resources, we absolutely must account for that dependence.”

Groundwater accumulates slowly in the underlying bedrock over millennia. There is no problem if it is withdrawn slowly, but human population has exploded threefold in one human lifetime, and water use has risen even faster.

Supply problem

Research like this is a demonstration of ways to address a supply problem − but there is more work to be done.

In a second study in Water Resources Research, the same team examined the challenge of trying to calculate the rates at which aquifers are being emptied, and the uncertainties as to how much might remain in them.

In the Northwest Sahara, for instance, estimates of the projected “time to depletion” varied from 10 years to 21,000 years. “In a water-scarce society,” Richey says, “we can no longer tolerate this level of uncertainty, especially since groundwater is disappearing so rapidly.”

Professor Famiglietti concludes: “I believe we need to explore the world’s aquifers as if they had the same value as oil reserves. We need to drill for water in the same way that we drill for other resources.” – Climate News Network

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Combating climate dangers is seen as medical emergency

Combating climate dangers is seen as medical emergency

International experts say the last 50 years of health advances worldwide will be jeopardised unless urgent steps are taken to confront climate change.

LONDON, 23 June, 2015 – The threat that climate change poses to human health is so great that it could undermine the last half-century of gains in development and global health, says an international commission of medical experts.

One author, fiercely critical of international efforts to confront the problem, says it is a medical emergency that demands an emergency response.

More hopefully, though, the group’s report says that international efforts to tackle climate change – “the defining challenge of our generation” – represent one of the greatest opportunities to improve health worldwide this century.

The report, published in The Lancet medical journal, is the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change.

Unparalleled chance

It says many responses to climate change have direct and indirect health benefits – from reducing air pollution to improving diet – and so efforts to reduce the threat offer an unparalleled chance for far-reaching gains in health.

But the commission is under no illusions about what is at stake. The authors say the potentially catastrophic risk to human health posed by climate change has been underestimated

They add – in a familiar refrain – that while the technologies and finance required to address the problem do exist, the global political will to implement them is lacking.

Professor Hugh Montgomery, one of the commission’s co-chairs and director of the University College London (UCL) Institute for Human Health and Performance, UK, says: “Climate change is a medical emergency. It thus demands an emergency response, using the technologies available right now.

“Under such circumstances, no doctor would consider a series of annual case discussions and aspirations adequate, yet this is exactly how the global response to climate change is proceeding.”

“Now is the time for us to lead the way in responding to another great threat to the human and environmental health of our generation

Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change

Image: The Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change

Professor Anthony Costello, another of the commission’s co-chairs and director of the UCL Institute for Global Health, says: “Climate change has the potential to reverse the health gains from economic development that have been made in recent decades – not just through the direct effects on health from a changing and more unstable climate, but through indirect means such as increased migration and reduced social stability.”

The report says the direct health impacts of climate change come from the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, especially heatwaves, floods, droughts and storms. Indirect impacts result from changes in infectious disease patterns, air pollution, food insecurity and malnutrition, involuntary migration, displacement and conflicts.

It says there are many ways in which action on climate change brings immediate health gains. For example, burning fewer fossil fuels reduces respiratory diseases, and what doctors call “active transport” (walking and cycling) cuts pollution and traffic accidents, and reduces rates of obesity, diabetes, coronary heart disease and stroke. There are also health benefits from changes to diet, such as eating less red meat.

Entrenched interests

The commission is an extensive collaboration between experts from Europe and China. Its other co-chair, Professor Peng Gong, from Tsinghua University, Beijing, says: “The health community has responded to many grave threats to health in the past.

“It took on entrenched interests such as the tobacco industry, and led the fight against HIV/AIDS. Now is the time for us to lead the way in responding to another great threat to the human and environmental health of our generation.”

The report provides a set of recommendations for policy-makers, and the authors propose the formation of a new global independent body on climate change and health − to be called Countdown to 2030: Climate Change and Health Action − to monitor and report every two years on the health impacts of climate change. – Climate News Network

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Rise in CO2 could restrict growing days for crops

Rise in CO2 could restrict growing days for crops

While plants in temperate zones may benefit from higher temperatures, global warming’s impact in the tropics threatens catastrophe for food security.

LONDON, 20 June, 2015 − The positive consequences of climate change may not be so positive. Although plants in the colder regions are expected to thrive as average global temperatures rise, even this benefit could be limited.

Some tropical regions could lose up to 200 growing days a year, and more than two billion rural people could see their hopes wither on the vine or in the field. Even in  temperate zones, there will be limits to extra growth.

Plants quicken, blossom and ripen as a response to moisture, warmth and the length of daylight. Global warming will clearly change the temperatures and influence the patterns of precipitation, but it won’t make any difference to the available hours of sunlight at any point on the globe.

Scientists at the University of Hawaii at Mānoa report in the Public Library of Science journal PLOS Biology that they looked at the big picture of complex change. Higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide – the greenhouse gas from car exhausts, forest fires and factory chimneys – are expected overall to aid crop and forest growth.

Extended season

Average global warming of less than 1°C in the last 30 years has extended the northern hemisphere growing season by up to 11 days, but plants are still limited by radiation.

“Those that think climate change will benefit plants need to see the light, literally and figuratively,” says Camilo Mora, lead author of the report and assistant professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Hawaii.

“A narrow focus on the factors that influence plant growth has led to major underestimations of the potential impacts of climate change on plants, not only at higher latitudes but more severely in the tropics, exposing the world to dire consequences.”

Professor Mora has made a career of thinking about global consequences. He and colleagues recently tried to calculate the possible dates at which local climates could shift inexorably in different parts of the world, and tried also to build a picture of how ocean warming and acidification would affect incomes everywhere.

“Many plants will not be able to take advantage of those warmer temperatures because there will not be enough sunlight to sustain their growth”

His team is not the first to try to calculate the potential impact of catastrophic global warming on global food supply. Cereals are vulnerable to extremes of heat, and climate change may already be affecting yields in Europe.

But the Hawaiian scientists tried a simple theoretical approach, by first identifying the ranges of temperature, soil moisture and light that drive 95% of the world’s plant growth today.

They then tried to calculate the number of days in a year in which these growth conditions could be expected at various latitudes in the future, as carbon dioxide levels – and average temperatures – climb.

They found that, nearer the poles, the number of days above freezing would increase by 7%.

“But many plants will not be able to take advantage of those warmer temperatures because there will not be enough sunlight to sustain their growth,” says Iain Caldwell, of the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology.

The same warming at the lowest latitudes could be devastating: in some tropical regions, conditions could become too hot and dry for any growth.

Overall, the planet could see an 11% reduction in the number of days suited to growth, and some places in the tropics could lose 200 growing days a year.

Although some regions in China, Russia and Canada will see an improvement, around 2.1 billion people who rely on forests and agriculture for food and revenue could lose 30% of the days they now bank on for plant growth.

But rising levels of carbon dioxide could also affect the quality of plant growth, according to a new study in Global Change Biology.

Zhaozhong Feng, of the Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, and colleagues looked at the results of eight experiments in four continents on crops, grasslands and forests, and found that as carbon dioxide levels go up, the nitrogen content of the crop is lowered. In the case of wheat and rice, this would also mean lower protein levels.

Negative effect

“Furthermore, we can see that this negative effect exists regardless of whether or not the plants’ growth increases, and even if fertiliser is added,” says Johan Uddling, a plant physiologist at Gothenburg, and a co-author of the report. “This is unexpected and new.”

In the same week, a team of scientists at the University of Alaska Fairbanks produced evidence that climate change has already begun to alter the forests of the far north.

They report in the journal Forest Ecology and Management that in the interior of Alaska, already at the optimum temperature range for white spruce, tree growth slowed as summer temperatures rose.

In Western Alaska, once at the low end of the ideal temperature range for the same species, trees are now growing more rapidly.

“For the first time across a major forest region, we have real data showing that biome shift has started”, said Glenn Juday, professor of forest ecology at the university’s School of Natural Resources.

“This is not a scenario model, or a might, or a maybe. The boreal forest in Interior Alaska is very near dying from unsuitably warm temperatures. The area in Western Alaska where the forest transitions to tundra is now the productive heart of the boreal forest.” − Climate News Network

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India blames heatwave deaths on climate change 

India blames heatwave deaths on climate change 

Fierce temperatures in India doubled the heat-related deaths normally recorded in May − and the government insists natural causes are not to blame.

CHENNAI, 19 June, 2015 − India, one of the key players in the efforts to reach an international agreement on global warming, has no doubt of its malign effects. It was, says a government minister, the warming climate that caused last month’s devastating heatwave.

From mid-April till the end of May, nearly 2,200 people were killed by the heat − 1,636 of them in Andhra Pradesh, the worst-affected state. The normal May figure for the whole of India is about 1,000 heat-related deaths.

Dr Harsh Vardhan, India’s Minister of Science and Technology and Earth Sciences, has blamed the heat deaths squarely on climate change.

Improve understanding

Launching a supercomputer at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting to improve understanding of climatic changes, he said: “It’s not just another unusually hot summer − it is climate change.

“Let us not fool ourselves that there is no connection between the unusual number of deaths from the ongoing heatwave and the certainty of another failed monsoon.”

Dr Vardhan said that May’s heatwave, followed by the delay to the start of the monsoon, on which nearly half of India’s farmlands depend, was a definite manifestation of climate change.

Jejabba, a 63-year-old farmer in Andhra Pradesh state, was one of those who lost their lives because of this year’s scorching heat.

He took his cows out to graze in a mango grove near his house around 11am, but was tired and dehydrated when he returned home four hours later. After he began vomiting, and then fainted, he was rushed to the small government hospital 5km from his village, but died on the way.

“In my 17 years of service, I have not
come across such an alarming number
of deaths due to a heatwave”

“Summer is severe, and many people have been affected by the heatwave in our village,” says Jejabba’s distant cousin, Pindigi Ramamurthi, who runs a grain store in the village. “Just the previous day, we took our two children to hospital after they began vomiting. The doctor admitted them for a few hours to administer fluids, and luckily that revived them.”

Local officials recorded Jejabba as “the latest of the summer deaths”. But when his widow asked for compensation − the state government pays 100,000 rupees (US$1,570) to the family of a victim − the local panchayat (civic) official, who has to recommend the payment, told her she must get a certificate from the hospital doctor.

“The doctor told the family he could not give the certificate because Jejabba did not die in his hospital,” Ramamurthi recalls. “Why couldn’t the poor fellow have stayed alive just an hour or so longer till we reached the hospital? Now the widow must suffer this red tape.”

In parts of southern India, daytime temperatures reached between 45° and 47°C during this year’s heatwave − up to 7°C above normal.

Alarming number

Dr Srihari Rao, resident medical officer at the government general hospital in Tirupati, about 45km from Jejabba’s home, says: “In my 17 years of service, I have not come across such an alarming number of deaths due to a heatwave.

“Almost every day in May there was a death in the district from sunstroke. The majority of the dead were in the 65 to 80 age group, but there was also a case of a 19-year-old girl dying from dehydration.”

Dr Rao said infants, aged people and farmers had been particularly severely affected.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported last year that there would be significant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves in India. Its report was based on weather records from 1906 to 2005.

Researchers at the India Meteorological Department, after conducting a study of heatwaves over the last 50 years, have called for public information campaigns to be launched on the dangers, and also stressed the importance of using social care networks to reach vulnerable sections of the population. − Climate News Network

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Climate change offers rare respite for African farmers

Climate change offers rare respite for African farmers

A surprise effect of greenhouse gases is that changes in air temperature and wind patterns are increasing rainfall and crop yields in the drought-prone Sahel region.

LONDON, 18 June, 2015 − A wide belt of tropical Africa is enjoying higher rainfall than for decades past, boosting harvests and keeping the threat of drought at bay. And the main factor, according to new research, is climate change.

Drought killed at least 100,000 people in the Sahel region south of the Sahara desert over a period of about 15 years from the late 1960s, but scientists in the UK report that summer rainfall was 0.3 mm (0.01 inches) a day higher from 1996-2011 than from 1964 to 1993.

“Amounts of rainfall have recovered substantially, and it was a surprise that the increase in greenhouse gases appears to have been the dominant factor,” Professor Rowan Sutton, director of climate research at the University of Reading’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK, told Reuters news agency.

The scientists report in Nature Climate Change that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounted for three-quarters of the recovery in rainfall, rather than other possible factors such as changes in sea temperature or air pollution from acid rain. Air warmed by GHGs can hold more moisture − which releases more rain − and can also affect wind patterns.

Welcome sign

Not surprisingly, the report comes with qualifications, and no one is hailing it as anything more than a welcome sign that one part of Africa is gaining more than it is losing from global warming − for the moment, at least.

Prof Sutton, co-author of the study, stressed that the change in Sahelian rainfall was only local, and that warming is still affecting many parts of Africa through desertification, floods and rising sea levels.

“It would be naïve to conclude that this is a good thing for Africa,” he said. “And, in future, there are other effects. The rise in temperatures can be detrimental to crops.”

But whatever climate change may bring, the people of the Sahel are working for a better future.

The World Resources Institute (WRI), based in Washington DC, has researched the role that the region’s farmers are playing, and has produced a report containing practical guidance and examples of how to scale up “regreening”.

This is a restoration technique that hundreds of thousands of farmers in three Sahelian countries − Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Niger − and in Malawi are already using to make their land more productive.

“It would be naïve to conclude that this is a good thing for Africa. In future . . . the rise in temperatures can be detrimental to crops”

Regreening uses a range of agroforestry and sustainable land management practices, and the WRI report focuses on one in particular that it says is “particularly promising”: farmer-managed natural regeneration (FMNR).

In FMNR systems, farmers protect and manage the growth of trees and shrubs that regenerate naturally in their fields from root stock or from seeds dispersed through animal manure. It can be an easy, low-cost way for farmers to increase the number of trees in the fields – and it is producing results in the Sahel.

In Burkina Faso, farmers are using water-harvesting techniques such as building stone lines and improved planting pits, known locally as zai. These help trap rainfall on crop fields, increasing average cereal yields from 400kg to around 900kg (880-1,984 lbs) per hectare.

Important food crops

One farmer in Burkina Faso said he had not needed to plant a single tree since 1979, because they grew naturally. Others said that FMNR had improved their yield from important food crops, such as millet.

In neighbouring Niger, the increased density of trees on cropland has reduced the time women spend collecting firewood from 2.5 hours each day to an average of half an hour.

Robert Winterbottom, a senior fellow with WRI’s forests programme, made a radical suggestion in a recent blog. He said that regreening the Sahel could enable people to stay at home, instead of joining the current tide of migration by refugees risking their lives to cross the Sahara and the Mediterranean to escape to Europe.

“Farmers have already demonstrated their ability to innovate and adopt practices that restore degraded land and provide a means to secure their futures,” he said.

“Perhaps citizens throughout Africa can prosper in their home countries, eliminating the need to take to the sea to pursue a better quality of life.” − Climate News Network

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World leaders urged to kick killer coal habit

World leaders urged to kick killer coal habit

Oxfam report says coal-fired power plants in the G7 group of countries should all be phased out to save lives, money and the planet.

LONDON, 6 June, 2015 – Leaders of G7 countries at this weekend’s summit in Germany are being called on today to show leadership by pledging to end all coal burning for electricity generation in the industrialised world.

“Let Them Eat Coal”, a report by  the international relief charity Oxfam, explains how it can be achieved without financial difficulty, and warns that continuing to burn coal will kill millions because of the food shortages that climate change will cause.

The report is endorsed by a group of scientists, politicians, industrialists, trade unionists and campaigners, who say that only with political leadership from G7 can the prospects of dangerous climate change be averted.

Weapon of destruction

It points out: “Each coal power station can be seen as a weapon of climate destruction – fuelling ruinous weather patterns, devastating harvests, driving food price rises and ultimately leaving more people facing hunger. With these climate impacts falling disproportionately on the most vulnerable and least food-secure people, the burning of coal is further exacerbating inequality.”

It points out that G7 coal plants emit twice as much fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions as the whole of Africa, and that “rich industrialised countries must stop hiding behind countries like China and take the lead in kicking their own coal habit”.

Coal provides 41% of the world’s electrical power but 72% of power-sector emissions. The report details how it is now cheaper to invest in and produce electricity with renewables than in coal plants in G7 countries.

The report details how many ageing coal plants each G7 country still operates, and how the wealthiest countries of the world can switch to alternatives, while creating jobs and without losing money.

“This is not a pipe dream – it is a clear
political opportunity that G7 governments
can and must seize”

Few of the G7 countries have built new coal plants, so closing them down would not lose capital investment. Ironically, Germany, which sees itself as a world leader in renewables and is the G7 host, has opened massive new coal-burning plants and will take longest to phase out coal unless it is prepared to lose money.

The report concludes that, without financial loss, France could phase out coal by 2020, the UK by 2023, and Italy by the mid-2020s. Canada and the US could follow by 2030, Japan by 2035, and Germany by 2040.

Apart from Germany and Japan, which have invested heavily in new coal plants, all G7 countries have an ageing fleet in which the original investment has long been repaid. For example, the average age of coal plants in the US is 45, and in the UK it is 41. Even in Germany and Japan, most coal plants are of the same vintage.

The report warns: “Coal power plants are the biggest obstacle standing between us and the internationally-agreed target to limit warming to 2 degrees [Centigrade].

Clean technologies

“G7 leaders meeting in 2015 can signal the beginning of the end of the coal era. By doing so, they can establish new momentum towards this year’s crucial UN climate talks in Paris and create thousands of new jobs in the clean technologies of the future.

“As the country-specific coal exit plans outlined in this paper make clear, this is not a pipe dream – it is a clear political opportunity that G7 governments can and must seize.”

Among those endorsing the report is Professor Olivier De Schutter, co-chair of the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems. He said coal-fired stations “increasingly look like weapons of destruction aimed at those who suffer the impacts of changing rainfall patterns as well as of extreme weather events. Getting rid of our addiction to coal is both possible and necessary.”

Dr Michael Grubb, senior research fellow at the Cambridge University Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, said: “The extraordinary irony is that study after study is showing that coal is bad for G7 economies. The damages associated with extracting and burning coal outweigh any apparent economic value – before even considering its impact on climate change.” – Climate News Network

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Cutting warming to 1.5°C could put food supply at risk

Cutting warming to 1.5°C could put food supply at risk

Scientists say meeting the tougher demands of many countries on limiting global temperature rise may be technically feasible, but would risk worsening world hunger.

LONDON, 21 May, 2015 – As world leaders try to agree how to prevent global warming from heating the planet by more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists have tackled an altogether thornier question: can we keep the rise below 1.5°C?

The lower target − demanded by more than 100 countries as a safer goal − is attainable, they say. But there will be little room for error, and getting there will mean not only cutting greenhouse gas emissions, but actually removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

That is not possible with the technology now available. And even if it could one day be done, it would probably have forbiddingly harmful consequences for world food supplies.

However, limiting temperature rise by 2100 to less than 1.5°C is still feasible, say the researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany, and colleagues. They report their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Similar actions

Not surprisingly, the answer includes doing more, and doing it faster. “Actions for returning global warming to below 1.5°C by 2100 are in many ways similar to those for limiting warming to below 2°C,” says IIASA climate researcher Joeri Rogelj, one of the lead authors of the report.

The authors accept that the economic, political, and technological conditions for achieving even 2°C are “substantial”. The negotiations to be held in Paris in December by member states of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) may show what chance there is of meeting them.

The new study identifies key ways of reaching the 1.5°C target by 2100. One is a tight limit on future carbon emissions.

Gunnar Luderer, PIK senior researcher in sustainable solutions, who co-led the study, says: “In 1.5°C scenarios, the remaining carbon budget for the 21st century is reduced to almost half, compared to 2°C scenarios.

“As a consequence, deeper emissions cuts are required from all sectors, and global carbon neutrality would need to be reached 10-20 years earlier than projected for 2°C scenarios.”

Energy efficiency will also need to improve faster, he says.

“The scenarios we assess keep warming
to the lowest levels currently considered
technologically feasible”

But the study finds that staying below 1.5°C would require a radical step change: some time this century, carbon emissions would have to become negative at a global scale.

That is the scientists’ way of saying that significant amounts of CO2 will have to be actively removed from the atmosphere. And there is at present no known way of doing that.

In theory, it is possible − for example, through bio-energy use, combined with carbon capture and storage. But that is a technology that so far remains untested on a large scale.

It would also increase hunger, as the crops needed to produce enough biofuel would compete for land with food plants.

Another idea is to grow more forests, which would sequester carbon in their trees, but this would be open to the same objection − that it would reduce cropland. The higher temperatures in prospect will themselves affect forest growth and health.

Lowest levels

Rogelj told the Climate News Network: “Increased temperatures can make afforestation efforts harder. However, the scenarios we assess here keep warming to the lowest levels currently considered technologically feasible, and this issue will thus have a relatively smaller impact.”

Whatever happens, the authors expect things to get hotter before they have any chance of cooling down.

Rogelj says: “Basically, all our 1.5°C scenarios first exceed the 1.5°C temperature threshold somewhere in mid-century, before declining to 2100 and beyond as more and more carbon dioxide is actively removed from the atmosphere by specialised technologies.”

Over 100 countries worldwide more than half the members of the UNFCCC, including the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) have declared their support for a 1.5°C target. – Climate News Network

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Tree-based farming could deliver abundant benefits

Tree-based farming could deliver abundant benefits

In addition to mitigating the effects of climate change, forests can help alleviate hunger and provide a safety net for some of the world’s poorest people.

LONDON, 8 May, 2015 – Forests may be the green investment with the richest returns for humankind, according to new research.

While one study outlines the ways in which forests provide food, fuel, shelter and a safety net for more than a billion humans, a separate one confirms that a canopy of older, sturdier trees helps protect the saplings and juvenile growths against heat and drought.

An international team of more than 60 scientists collaborated on a report − Forests, Trees and Landscapes for Food Security and Nutrition: a Global Assessment Report − just published by the International Union of Forest Research Organisations (IUFRO).

“Large-scale crop production is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, which may occur far more frequently under climate change,” says Christoph Wilburger, who co-ordinated the IUFRO initiative. “Science shows that tree-based farming can adapt far better to such calamities.

Key role

“We know that forests already play a key role in mitigating the effects of climate change. This report makes it very clear that they also play a key role in alleviating hunger and in improving nutrition.”

Climate scientists tend to consider forests as “carbon sinks” − agencies that soak up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and that could help counter the rising levels of the greenhouse gas released by the burning of fossil fuels.

But forests also have a role in water storage and in protecting land from the forces of erosion.

Forest fruits and nuts are an important nutrition source for many. The iron content of the dried seeds of the African locust bean and raw cashew nut can, for instance, match the flesh of chickens. And forests are shelter for sources of wild meat, fish and edible insects.

“Extensive losses of forest canopy . . . will amplify the effects of climate change”

In developing countries, around 2.4 billion households use wood and charcoal for cooking and heating, and forests deliver a multitude of what are sometimes called ecosystem services − such as supporting bees and other crop pollinators, delivering fodder for village livestock, and protecting streams and watersheds.

Worldwide, the lower the levels of prosperity, the higher the dependence on forests. In the Sahel region of Africa south of the Sahara, trees contribute on average four-fifths of household income − mostly through shea nut production.

The report also points out that the expansion of agricultural land accounts for 73% of forest loss worldwide.

Increasing threat

But if forests keep people safe, what keeps a forest in leaf when drought, extremes of heat and the attrition of climate change are also an increasing threat?

Solomon Dobrowski, of the Forest Landscape Ecology Lab at the University of Montana, and colleagues report in Global Ecology and Biogeography that the regeneration of future forests could depend on shelter from the extensive canopy provided by the adult trees in mature woodland.

Juvenile trees are more shallow-rooted and more vulnerable to high winds, intense sunlight, high temperatures and extended drought. Without a shady, protective canopy, they could suffer. And without juvenile trees, a forest could only decline.

Professor Dobrowski warns: “Extensive losses of forest canopy from disturbances such as severe wildfire will amplify the effects of climate change.” – Climate News Network

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