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by Kieran Cooke

Warming climate worries UK farmers

May 19, 2013 in Warming

EMBARGOED till 2301 GMT on Saturday 18 May

Infestations of the larvae of the crane fly, or daddy-long-legs, have been intense Image: Alvesgaspar

Infestations of the larvae of the crane fly, or daddy-long-legs, have been “mind-boggling”
Image: Alvesgaspar

By Kieran Cooke

Agricultural scientists are linking several pests and diseases affecting British farming with climate change, posing problems for both livestock and crops.

LONDON, 19 May - They are short, have a tough outer skin and are capable of doing a great deal of damage – at least to lawns, grasslands and to cereal crops.

Leatherjacket grubs – Tipula oleracea – are the larvae of crane flies, the insects with slender wings and arched legs more commonly known – at least in the United Kingdom – as “daddy-long -legs”.

Agriculture experts in Scotland are now suggesting that climate change has been causing recent infestations of the leatherjacket grub in the country, threatening spring-sown cereal crops and grasslands.

Adult crane flies lay their eggs in late summer or early autumn. The larvae – the leatherjacket grubs – live just below soil level and in spring and early summer eat the roots of grasses and other plants.

Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC), which has six campuses spread across the country, has been carrying out grub surveys for the past 38 years. The latest annual survey data on leatherjacket numbers, collected between November last year and April 2013 in central and western Scotland, found infestations at an exceptionally high level.

Seventy per cent of fields surveyed had grub populations of more than one million per hectare – and some fields had more than seven million per hectare. “The numbers are mind boggling”, Dr Davy McCracken, an ecologist at SRUC, told Climate News Network.

“We’re not forcing the climate change envelope, but the correlation between a succession of mild and wet autumns in this region and the growing number of leatherjackets is striking.

“There tend to be fluctuations in the size of grub densities in grassland from one year to the next. But since 1997/98 we’ve not only seen much larger densities, but also those large average densities have been more sustained from one year to the next.

Risks to crops and animals

 

“For example, over the last 38 years we have seen 13 years when the average density of grubs was more than a million per hectare – and nine of those high density years have occurred since 1997/98.”

Dr McCracken says that while no comparable surveys have been carried out in England it’s likely that, due to the generally wet but relatively mild weather last autumn, the risk of similar infestations on lands further south is high.

Agriculture experts warn that the heightened grub activity could decrease yields of cereal crops and cause declines in grassland fodder for cattle and other animals. The leatherjacket also attacks potato tubers.

The infestation of leatherjackets is one of a number of climate change-related threats to agriculture. Experts at SRUC have linked changes in climate with the growth of liver fluke disease – a condition which can kill sheep and cattle.

In a recent report it was predicted that an increase in wet, warm winter conditions would likely cause an unprecedented level of the disease in many regions of the UK in future.

Scientists have also linked changes in climate to the spread into areas of northern Europe, including the UK, of the blue tongue virus, another disease that can kill cattle and sheep. – Climate News Network

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by alex kirby

Amazon ‘may lose 65% of land biomass by 2060′

May 10, 2013 in Science

EMBARGOED until 2301 GMT on Thursday 9 May

Irreplaceable forest may be lost, for no gain at all Image: By Sascha Grabow www.saschagrabow.com

Irreplaceable forest may be lost, for no gain, and the climate will feel the impact
Image: Sascha Grabow www.saschagrabow.com

By Alex Kirby

Making more land in the Amazon available for farming and ranching means felling more trees to make space – and researchers say that risks meaning that more agricultural expansion will simply mean less production, because of deforestation’s effect on the climate.

LONDON, 10 May – There will be no winners if agriculture made possible by widespread felling in the Amazon continues to expand, say researchers from Brazil and the US.

They calculate that the large-scale expansion of agriculture at the expense of the forest could entail the loss of almost two-thirds of the Amazon’s terrestrial biomass by later this century.

Their study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, shows that deforestation will not only reduce the capacity of the Amazon’s natural carbon sink.

It will also cause climate feedbacks that will decrease the productivity of pasture and soybeans – the reason advanced for felling the trees in the first place.

Brazil is under intense pressure to convert the Amazon forests to produce crops and provide pasture for cattle. But the forests’ natural ecosystems sustain wild food production, maintain water and other resources, regulate climate and air quality and ameliorate the impact of  infectious diseases.

The researchers are from the Brazilian federal universities of Viçosa, Pampa, Minas Gerais and the Woods Hole Research Center in the US.

They used model simulations to assess how the agricultural yield of the Amazon would be affected under two different land-use scenarios: one, business-as-usual, where recent deforestation trends continue and new protected areas are not created; and the other a governance scenario, which assumes Brazilian environmental legislation is implemented.

They predict that by 2050 a decrease in precipitation caused by deforestation will reduce pasture productivity by 30% in the governance scenario and by 34% in the business-as-usual scenario.

They say increasing temperatures could cause a reduction in soybean yield by 24% in the governance scenario and by 28% under the business-as-usual scenario.

It is significant that the study finds relatively little difference between the outcomes of the two scenarios, perhaps suggesting that Brazil needs to tighten its environmental legislation drastically and to enforce it more effectively.

“…it was a surprise to us that high levels of deforestation could be a no-win scenario – the loss of environmental services from the deforestation may not be offset by an increase in agricultural production”

Perhaps the authors’ starkest conclusion (but see our story of 11 March) is that a combination of the forest biomass removal itself, and the resulting climate change, which feeds back on ecosystem productivity, could result in biomass on the ground declining by up to 65% for the period 2041-2060.

And all this would achieve little or nothing in terms of food production. The researchers write: “…total agricultural output may either increase much less than expected proportional to the potential expansion in agricultural area, or even decrease, as a consequence of climate feedbacks from changes in land use.

“These climate feedbacks, usually ignored in previous studies, impose a reduction in precipitation that would lead agricultural expansion in Amazonia to become self-defeating: the more agriculture expands, the less productive it becomes.”

The lead author of the study, Dr Leydimere Oliveira, said: “We were initially interested in quantifying the environmental services provided by the Amazon and their replacement by agricultural output.

“We expected to see some kind of compensation or off-put, but it was a surprise to us that high levels of deforestation could be a no-win scenario – the loss of environmental services from the deforestation may not be offset by an increase in agricultural production.”

The study shows that the effects of deforestation will be felt most in the eastern Pará and northern Maranhão regions. Here the local precipitation appears to depend strongly on the forests, and changes in land cover would drastically affect the local climate, possibly to the point where agriculture became unviable.

“There may be a limit to the expansion of agriculture in Amazonia. Below this limit, there are not important economic consequences”, said Dr Oliveira.

“Beyond this limit, the feedbacks that we demonstrated start to introduce significant losses in agricultural production.” – Climate News Network

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by alex kirby

Warmer climate ‘threatens cassava crop’

May 7, 2013 in Warming

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Dried cassava roots, a staple food source in many tropical countries Image: Ton Rulkens

Dried cassava roots, a staple food source in many tropical countries
Image: Ton Rulkens

By Alex Kirby

Serious food shortages will affect millions of people across Africa unless scientists can neutralise the threat posed to the highly resilient cassava crop by insects which thrive in rising temperatures.

LONDON, 7 May – A plant which is a staple food crop for millions of people across Africa is at risk from disease as regional temperatures rise, scientists say.

The plant, cassava, is a significant source of food and income, and is an important industrial crop, and there is concern that serious food shortages may result and poverty worsen.

Experts say the spread of the disease could halve cassava production and threaten the diets of 300 million people.

The disease responsible, Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD) is transmitted by insects whose numbers are surging, with rising temperatures thought to be one of the factors causing the increase.

CBSD was first identified in East Africa in the 1930s. It is deceptive, because an infected plant’s leaves may continue to look healthy while the roots beneath are being destroyed.

It is only when the roots are dug up and found to be streaked with brown that farmers know their crop is infected. The roots are rich in carbohydrates and are used both for food and to make starch, flour, biofuel and beer.

New outbreaks of CBSD have been reported recently in the Democratic Republic of Congo – the world’s third largest cassava producer – and Angola.

Rambo crop

 

If it spreads to West Africa that will be especially serious. Nigeria alone now produces 50 million tons of cassava annually and plans to use the crop widely in its agricultural and industrial development.

“Cassava is already incredibly important for Africa and is poised to play an even bigger role in the future, which is why we need to move quickly to contain and eliminate this plague”, says Claude Fauquet, a scientist at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture who heads the Global Cassava Partnership for the 21st Century (GCP21).

“We are particularly concerned that the disease could spread to West Africa and particularly Nigeria – the world’s largest producer and consumer of cassava – because Nigeria would provide a gateway for an invasion of West Africa where about 150 million people depend on the crop.”

To counter another viral scourge, Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD), scientists developed varieties of the plant which are resistant to it. Unfortunately, though, the CMD-resistant varieties are not proof against Brown Streak Disease.

Cassava has a reputation as a tough and resilient performer in conditions where many other crops cannot flourish, and so has been seen as a good way for farmers in sub-Saharan Africa to guard against the effects of climate change.

Research published in the journal Tropical Plant Biology found it could cope with the temperature rises of up to 2°C expected in West Africa by 2030, and would generally outperform six other crops – potato, maize, bean, banana, millet, and sorghum.

The report’s lead author, Andy Jarvis, said: “Cassava is a survivor; it’s like the Rambo of the food crops. It deals with almost anything the climate throws at it.

Out-competed

 

“It thrives in high temperatures, and if drought hits it simply shuts down until the rains come again. There’s no other staple out there with this level of toughness.

“The ideal situation is for farmers to have a diversity of crops, with cassava acting as a failsafe. This would enhance nutrition and reduce climate risk.”

But, in another twist of fate, it is rising temperatures which now threaten cassava because they appear to be one of several factors which are causing an explosion in whiteflies, the insects which carry the viruses that cause CMD and CBSD.

This, coupled with what scientists think are genetic changes leading to the emergence of “super” whiteflies, now means that large swathes of Africa face the prospect of intensified food insecurity.

“We used to see only three or four whiteflies per plant; now we’re seeing thousands”, said James Legg, a leading cassava expert at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture. “You have a situation where human beings are competing for food – with whiteflies.”

Claude Fauquet says: “It’s time for the world to recalibrate its scientific priorities. More than any other crop, cassava has the greatest potential to reduce hunger and poverty in Africa, but CBSD and other viruses are crippling yields.

“We need to treat CBSD and other destructive viruses like the smallpox of cassava – formidable diseases, but threats we can eradicate if everyone pulls together.” – Climate News Network

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by alex kirby

Biofuels cost both rich and poor

April 15, 2013 in Energy

EMBARGOED until 2301 GMT on Sunday 14 April

EU regulations on biofuels raise prices - and pressure to produce more Image: Ramos Keith, US Fish & Wildlife Service

EU regulations on biofuels raise prices – and pressure to produce more
Image: Ramos Keith, US Fish & Wildlife Service

By Alex Kirby

Using biofuels as the European Union demands will force up costs for British motorists, make food more expensive for poorer countries and may increase the greenhouse emissions they are meant to cut, a report says.

LONDON, 15 April – Biofuels, widely seen as the green way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, may in some cases be worse for the climate than fossil fuels, a report says.

Not only will they cost motorists more than ordinary petrol and diesel and increase fuel consumption: they will also make food more expensive.

From 15 April, to meet European Union targets, suppliers in the UK are required to blend 5% of biofuel into the petrol and diesel they sell for transport.

Rob Bailey, the author of the report, entitled The Trouble with Biofuels, says: “Current biofuels are at best an expensive way of reducing emissions.

“At worst they produce more emissions than the fossil fuels they replace and contribute to high and unstable food prices. Policymaking needs to catch up with the evidence base.”

The report is published by the UK’s Royal Institute of International Affairs, a London-based independent policy institute known as Chatham House.

It estimates that as the EU target is reached, biofuels will cost UK motorists about £460 million ($700 million) in the year ahead. This includes the increased cost of the fuel, caused by higher prices at the pumps, and also the need to fill tanks more often because biofuels contain less energy.

The amount of biofuel which the EU requires to be blended in has been rising in the UK by 0.5% annually for some years. The report says further increases to comply with EU targets mean the cost to motorists could almost triple to around £1.3 billion ($2 billion) annually by 2020.

It says biofuels are an expensive way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The cost of emissions reductions achieved by using them is typically several times what the UK Government has identified as an appropriate price to pay.

“You could buy palm oil, cook a single chip in it and then sell it at a profit for biodiesel”

While the Government says carbon abatement costs per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) should be about £56 ($87) for road transport, the report says the cost using the current generation of biofuels ranges from about £105 to £715 ($165-1,100).

It says increasing biofuel use is also forcing up food prices. This threatens food security in poor countries and is also likely to contribute to higher emissions, as farmers respond to higher prices by expanding production, sometimes into rainforest or peatland.

After incorporating these “indirect emission” effects from changes in land use, often into areas valuable as carbon sinks, the analysis found that biofuels produced from vegetable oils are likely to be worse for the climate than fossil fuels.

The report says biodiesel from waste products like used cooking oil or tallow (processed animal fat) is the most sustainable form of biofuel on offer, but even there the risk of indirect emissions may already be substantial.

Rob Bailey told the Climate News Network: “These emissions are even more indirect than those caused by farmers expanding their production of biofuel crops.

“The price of used cooking oil has increased quite considerably because of the demand for biofuel, and it’s started to exceed the price of refined palm oil.

“You could buy palm oil, cook a single chip in it and then sell it at a profit for biodiesel. It’s the same with tallow, and as prices rise the traditional users of both products have to look for oil elsewhere. That drives production up.”

Accounting for emissions from indirect land-use change pushes up abatement costs for agricultural biofuels to between £215 and £5,540 ($330-8,500) per tonne of CO2e depending on the feedstock used, says the report.

There are currently no safeguards in UK or EU policy for dealing with the impact of biofuels on food security (see our story of 31 January, Biofuels needn’t cause hunger) and deforestation (see our story of 30 January, Tropical peatlands ‘haemorrhage’ fossil carbon).. Unless there are, the  report says, the UK will not be able to meet its EU obligations sustainably. – Climate News Network

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Climate will harm Mekong Basin harvests

March 29, 2013 in Economy

EMBARGOED until 0001 GMT on Friday 29 March

The fertility of the region around the Mekong will suffer Image: Thomas Schoch

The fertility of the region around the Mekong will suffer
Image: Thomas Schoch

By Alex Kirby

Within 40  years densely-populated south east Asia, whose agricultural exports also feed many millions beyond its borders, will be experiencing the full impacts of climate change, a study says.

LONDON, 29 March – One of the most fertile areas of south east Asia, the Lower Mekong Basin, faces a bleak future from the impacts of climate change, according to a US-funded study.

The lead author of the study, Dr Jeremy Carew-Reid, says some of its findings are “very shocking”.

Hotter and wetter rainy seasons and more long-lasting dry seasons in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam will jeopardise the region’s reputation as one of the world’s major producers of crops on which hundreds of millions depend. Climate change will also have a profound economic impact in the region.

“We’ve found that this region is going to experience climate extremes in temperature and rainfall beyond anything that we expected”, says Dr Carew-Reid.

The Basin is known for its production of maize and rice, the two grains with the highest worldwide production levels. Rice provides more than a fifth of the calories consumed by humans. The study forecasts fundamental shifts in the kinds of crops  that  can be grown in parts of the Basin.

The USAID-funded Climate Change Adaptation and Impact Study for the Lower Mekong examines how changes in temperature and precipitation will affect growing conditions and yields for major crops including not only maize and rice but rubber, cassava, soya and coffee, and  how fisheries and livestock productivity will be affected.

There’s general international agreement that global average temperatures should if possible be prevented from rising more than 2°C above their pre-industrial level, although most climate scientists believe it’s now too late to stop temperatures rising further.

A global average rise of 2°C is expected to mean that parts of the tropics like the Mekong Basin will warm by between  4°C and 6°C by mid-century. The impacts will vary, but all the Lower Mekong countries are likely to see big changes in the suitability of land for important crops.

Protein source at risk

 

The study expects higher temperatures and more rainfall to decrease the feasibility of growing rain-fed rice in the lowlands of Thailand’s northern Chiang Rai Province but to increase yields in the north eastern province of Sakon Nakhon.

More rain in Cambodia  is likely to reduce cassava and rubber yields in the Kampong Thom and Mondul Kiri regions, while temperature and rainfall increases will result in coffee in Laos having to be cultivated at higher altitudes.

Hotter and wetter weather will alter the Central Highlands in Vietnam, making the area more suitable for rubber but less so for maize and coffee.

The study also identifies “hot spot” provinces in the Basin where the impact of these changes is expected to have severe effects on food security and livelihoods.

The results of the study will help with the monitoring of how and when the “comfort zones” of key crops – areas where temperature, rainfall and soil conditions create the right conditions for production – will move. The ability to continue existing crop production in these zones is expected to decline.

For fisheries and livestock the impacts of a changing climate may also be serious (fisheries are a key source of protein in the Basin). Feed typically accounts for 65-80% of livestock production costs, so climate impacts on crops like maize and cassava will also damage livestock farmers.

In Vietnam, heat stress may limit the farming of freshwater prawns and flash floods could cause sudden drops in salinity, with disease spreading into coastal shrimp ponds.

International impact

 

The impacts on agriculture will be accompanied by damage to the natural world, with more plant and animal populations and species likely to be lost to extreme temperatures and dry spells.

The study stresses that climate change is not about the environment alone. The countries of the Lower Mekong Basin are major food exporters, and a warming climate will affect every economy in the region.

“Adaptation to climate change does not just mean shifting from one crop to another”, says Paul Hartman, director of the Bangkok-based Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (Mekong ARCC) project, the body responsible for the study. “It also means being aware of potential changes, looking out for warning signs that these changes are beginning to occur, and being prepared to respond.”

In another sign of concern at the implications of climate change for south east Asia, a senior US military figure identified it earlier this month as a priority issue.

Admiral Samuel Locklear, who heads the US Pacific Command, said significant upheaval related to the warming planet “is probably the most likely thing that is going to happen… that will cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about.’’

The Boston Globe reported him as saying: “We have interjected into our multilateral dialogue – even with China and India – the imperative to kind of get military capabilities aligned [for] when the effects of climate change start to impact these massive populations.

“If it goes bad, you could have hundreds of thousands or millions of people displaced and then security will start to crumble pretty quickly.’’ – Climate News Network

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Climate change: One more problem for Pakistan

March 24, 2013 in Development Issues

EMBARGOED until 0001 GMT on Sunday 24 March

Floodwaters in Pakistan, 2010 Image: DVIDSHUB

Floodwaters in Pakistan, 2010
Image: DVIDSHUB

By Kieran Cooke

The growing menace of deadly bombings, attacks by US drones, continuing tensions with neighbouring India, power and food shortages and political instability as a general election looms in May -  as if Pakistan doesn’t have enough troubles, climate change is threatening the country.

The Indus river, originating on the Tibetan Plateau and flowing for nearly 2,000 miles through the disputed  territory of Jammu and Kashmir and finally down to the province of Sindh and out into the Arabian Sea, is key to life in Pakistan.

The majority of Pakistan’s 190 million people are involved in agriculture: the Indus, fed by glaciers high up in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram Himalaya mountain range, provides water for 90% of the country’s crops. Meanwhile hydro-power facilities based on the Indus generate around 50% of Pakistan’s total electricity.

Climate change is now threatening this vital waterway – and the future of millions in Pakistan. In recent weeks it has launched, in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), its first ever national policy on climate change.

“Pakistan is among the most vulnerable countries facing climate risks”, says Marc-Andre Franche, the UNDP’s Pakistan director. ”Mechanisms need to be devised for greener, more resilient options for growth and sustainable development… the climate change clock is ticking too fast and the time to act is here and now.”

Pakistan’s scientists say that in order for the new policy to be effective a number of steps need to be urgently taken to mitigate the impacts of climate change. These include developing high temperature-tolerant crop strains, comprehensive flood warning systems and more reservoirs on the upper Indus. But there are serious doubts about funding for such schemes.

Ghulam Rasul, chief meteorologist at the Pakistan Meteorological Department, says weather patterns are becoming increasingly erratic. In the 1999 to 2002 period Pakistan was hit by severe droughts as the flow in the Indus and its tributaries fell dramatically. But from 2010 to 2012 a series of unusually intense monsoons caused the Indus to burst its banks, resulting in widespread floods: thousands were killed and millions displaced.

“Pakistan’s climate-sensitive agrarian economy now faces larger risks from variability in monsoon rains, floods and extended droughts”, says Rasul. “I urge the world to assist Pakistan to deal with climate change.”

Economy at risk

 

According to data gathered from 56 meteorological stations throughout Pakistan, there has been a marked increase in heat waves and rising temperatures in the vast Indus Delta in recent years.

In an article in the Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, Rasul and others say there is a greater incidence of tropical cyclones and of saline intrusion in coastal regions. Already wheat and banana harvests in the Indus Delta are being affected.

Rising temperatures are also causing health problems among the area’s population. In many cases farmers in the region -  among the poorest people in the world – are abandoning their lands and migrating to already overcrowded cities.

If this trend continues it could have devastating consequences for the wider economy. Sindh and the Indus Delta have become one of the world’s premier cotton-producing areas, feeding Pakistan’s economically vital textile industry. Falling cotton production in the region would not only hurt Pakistan: it would also trigger a substantial rise in world cotton prices.

Meanwhile in the mountainous far north most glaciers are in retreat, though some in the Karakoram range are stable or even – for as yet unknown reasons – expanding. Experts say that while melting glaciers might offset temperature rises and act as a form of insurance against drought in the short term,  the long term prognosis is not good.

David Grey, former senior water advisor at the World Bank and now visiting Professor of Water Policy at Oxford University,
says that although there is insufficient data to come to an accurate long term assessment of what will happen to the Indus, there are deep anxieties.

“We all have very nasty fears that the flows of the Indus could be severely, severely affected by glacier melt as a consequence of climate change. Now what does that mean to a population that lives in a desert – without the river, there would be no life? I don’t know the answer to that question”, he says. “But we need to be concerned about that. Deeply, deeply concerned.” – Climate News Network

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Nepalis respond to changing climate

February 22, 2013 in Development Issues

EMBARGOED until 0001 GMT on Friday 22 February

The Himalayas, seen from the International Space Station Image: NASA

The Himalayas, seen from the International Space Station                     Image: NASA

By Kieran Cooke

One of the Climate News Network’s editors, Kieran Cooke, was among a group of journalists recently investigating the impact of climate change in Nepal and the Himalayas. He reports on changes occurring in “the Third Pole”, the politically sensitive region with more ice and water than anywhere on Earth except the Arctic and Antarctic.

KATHMANDU, 20 February – Environmental resource conflict – or the potential for it – is never far away in the Himalayas.

In the west of the region, arguments between Pakistan and India over vital water resources in areas bordering the two countries continue. In the east tensions are rising as India expresses concerns about a spate of planned dam-building projects by China on rivers flowing into Indian territory, particularly on the mighty Brahmaputra. Meanwhile Nepal and the north Indian state of Bihar accuse each other of mismanaging water resources that straddle the border.

Regional cooperation is limited and, in many areas, non-existent. In some countries data on vital environmental factors, such as river flows and management, falls into the category of national security and is closely guarded.

The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), founded in the early 1980s and based in Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital, is the only intergovernmental body gathering cross-border environmental information and monitoring climate change across a region stretching from the mountains of the Hindu Kush and Afghanistan in the west to Yunnan in southwest China in the east.

Difficult adaptation

 

It’s an area described as a climate “hot spot”, with temperatures in many parts rising faster than the global average.

In an ambitious project, ICIMOD has over recent months been trying to gather information on communities’ attitudes and responses across the region to climate change and socio-economic factors which are affecting their livelihoods. More than 6,000 households – mainly in mountain areas – have been involved in responding to a detailed questionnaire.

“Results are still being carefully analyzed and documented”, says Valdemar Holmgren, a climate change adaptation specialist at ICIMOD. “But early indications from one area in Nepal clearly show people are fully aware of changes in climate patterns.”

The survey indicates that more than 80% of households in the Koshi river basin in the east of Nepal notice a change in temperature, while about 90% note changes in rainfall.

“Seasonality is not the same as it used to be”, says Holmgren. “In many areas farmers are changing crops in order to adapt to changing climate conditions. But for many it is very hard.”

Often, say specialists, climate is not the sole reason or the driving factor in people altering their way of life.

“In many mountain communities climate change might not be, at present, the central problem”, says Holmgren. “Outward migration of the men in search of work is a big issue, with women left to do the work and manage the family finances. Changes in climate become an additional pressure on communities struggling to cope.”

“The climate is increasingly erratic. In between days of rainfall there are long, dry periods”

Exactly how much climate change is occurring in the Himalayan region is a matter of considerable debate. The gathering of data across such a vast and inaccesible region is a complex business, made more difficult by regional suspicions and rivalries.

A recent report by the United Nations Environment Programme said that between 1982 and 2006, the average annual mean temperature in the region increased by 1.5˚C, with an average increase of 0.06˚C per year although, said the report, “the rate of warming varies across seasons and ecoregions.”

Dhrupad Choudhury, an ICIMOD programme manager, says that within Nepal change is evident, though it manifests itself differently in various parts of the country.

“Communities clearly see a reduction in the duration of rainfall. The monsoon is arriving later in the west of the country, while in the east it is completing earlier.  This means that in some areas crops wilt and production falls.

“The climate is increasingly erratic. In between days of rainfall there are long, dry periods – overall the perception is that production has gone down across the region.”

Finding out how communities are responding and adapting to changes in climate is a vital part of ICIMOD’s work. But it has to tread lightly in a region which is among the most climate-sensitive but also conflict-ridden in the world. – Climate News Network

Map by courtesy of ICIMOD

Map by courtesy of ICIMOD

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by Kieran Cooke

Weather changes frustrate Nepal’s farmers

February 19, 2013 in Development Issues

EMBARGOED till 0001 GMT on Tuesday 19 February

Saraswati Salvaging Potatoes

Saraswatii salvaging potatoes     Image: Kieran Cooke

By Kieran Cooke

One of the Climate News Network’s editors, Kieran Cooke, was among a group of journalists recently investigating the impact of climate change in Nepal and the Himalayas. He reports on some of the problems facing farmers in the region.

KATHMANDU, 15 February – Life has been good in the past few years for Saraswati Bhetwal, a farmer in the small village of Lanndhi, about 50 kms north of Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital.

Better road connections with the city mean farmers in the area have switched from subsistence agriculture and growing rice to cultivating cash crops like potatoes, cauliflowers and beans. More cash has led to increased educational opportunities, better access to health care and a general improvement in livelihoods.

“Then, in early January, I saw frost on the ground”, says Saraswati, who, as generally with women in Nepal, does most of the agricultural work. “It destroyed all the potatoes and hurt the other crops. For days I was so upset I could not go to the fields – we’ve lost all we invested. It is very hard.”

Saraswati, 46, is not interested in debates about climate change and whether the glaciers in the high Himalayas are melting. But she and other villagers do know that something strange is happening with the weather in this mountainous, landlocked country of 30 million people, the majority of them farmers  struggling on or below the poverty line.

Lanndhi is among a group of low-lying villages tucked away on a valley floor with a year-round temperate climate – till now, a seemingly ideal area for vegetable growing.

“We never had a frost like that before”, she says. “The weather is changing. The monsoon comes later each year. There are more warm days and more pests. And the winter rains are less frequent.”

Less predictable weather

 

The Himalayas – the world’s biggest and highest mountain range, stretching from Afghanistan and Pakistan in the west to Yunnan in southwest China in the east – are, together with the Tibetan plateau and surrounding mountain ranges, often referred to as “the Third Pole”, containing more ice and water than any other area on the planet outside the Arctic and Antarctic. Overall it’s estimated that about three billion people – more than 40% of the world’s population – depend on the food and energy produced in the region’s river basins.

“While measurements indicate the total amount of monsoon rainfall in Nepal has not changed, the timing of those rains has altered”, says Dr Bed Mani Dahal of the Department of Environmental Science and Engineering at Kathmandu University.

“Overall the number of days it rains is less than in the past. But when it does rain, the volumes are greater: violent downpours and hail can destroy crops. The weather is just not as predictable as it was before.”

Dr Dahal says that besides changes in weather patterns, farmers are facing another serious problem. The rush into cash crops in recent years has led to overuse of land and loss of topsoil. Increased fertilizer and pesticide use is polluting water courses.

“We don’t know when the rains will come or if there will be enough water. It’s not like before”

Scientists say changes in climate are more evident in the Himalayan region than in most other areas of the planet. As part of a US$ multi-million programme funded by the Norwegian Government, the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and two Norway-based environmental and scientific organisations (GRID-Arendal and CICERO) are seeking ways to help Himalayan farmers – particularly those living in mountainous areas – to cope with an increasingly uncertain future.

“What’s clear is that while villagers may not be aware of  the concept of climate change, they are seeing changes on the ground and are asking us what it is they should do”, says Arun Shrestha, an ICIMOD project manager.

Nepal has made considerable progress in recent years in developing its agricultural sector and improving overall living standards. Changes in climate could now threaten that progress.

Saraswati Bhetwal looks at the black, dead stalks on hundreds of  her potato plants. Compared with many farmers, she is relatively prosperous but says that with a failed crop and little spare cash, finding the money to invest in tubers and seeds for sowing next season will be hard.

“Farmers have many problems”, she says. “Now we don’t know when the rains will come or if there will be enough water. It’s not like before – and it’s just one more problem to deal with.” – Climate News Network

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by Paul Brown

Climate-friendly rice: End of the paddyfield?

February 18, 2013 in Development Issues

EMBARGOED until 0001 GMT on Monday 18 February

There is a better way - for farmers and the planet Image: Torikai Yukihiro

There is a better way – for farmers and the planet          Image: Torikai Yukihiro

By Paul Brown

A new method of growing rice has achieved significantly larger harvests while reducing the need for fertilisers and curbing emissions of greenhouse gases.

LONDON, 18 February – Changing the way rice is grown, from planting it in flooded paddy fields to drier soil cultivation, is dramatically increasing yields and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The results of trials in eleven countries show that yields increased by an average of 60%, although they varied sharply  between states, from an 11% increase to 220%.

A paper published in The Geographical Journal, the scientific publication of the Royal Geographical Society of London, says the System of Rice Intensification, or SRI, is having such success that 50 countries are now adopting it.

The method evolved in Madagascar over two decades but can now be applied in all rice-growing countries. Four studies in India, Indonesia, Kenya and Mali showed that production costs fell by 20-32%, and profit per hectare rose between 52% and 183%.

In China, which has adopted SRI on a large scale, yields increased, but – just as important for a country short of water – 22.6% less irrigation was needed.

SRI involves growing rice in aerated soil instead of flooded paddies. Single young seedlings are planted with regular wide spacing, and soils are kept moist but not wet. Nutrients are placed in the soil next to the plant rather than spread randomly.

The method reduces the costs of land preparation, seed, fertilizer and water use, and cuts methane emissions, while achieving the increased crop yields. Rice grown by the new method has bigger roots, and the larger plant produces more and heavier grains.

The environmental benefits, apart from the reduction in methane emissions from the flooded paddies, include a lower need for tractor power and the labour required before the crop is planted.

Healthier farmers

 

Less seed is needed for fewer, stronger plants.  Achieving this with less fertilizer means saving greenhouse gases in production, and less irrigation also saves the amount of fuel needed for water pumps.

In areas where arsenic in water is a problem – like Bangladesh – this new method reduces arsenic contamination in crops and soil. There are also health benefits to farmers and labourers working in dry fields rather than flooded ones. SRI also reduces the mosquito population and therefore malaria.

It is proving a success in all 50 countries which have adopted it across Asia, Africa and Central America. Despite this, one obstacle to exploiting this potentially huge boost to yields is getting the message to farmers, say the researchers, Amir Kassam, convener of the Land Husbandry Group at the UK Tropical Agriculture Association and Hugh Brammer, former United Nations agricultural development adviser to Bangladesh.

Educating the poor farmers who will benefit most is an uphill task because in many African and Asian countries they have little or no institutional backup, or sometimes because governments have collapsed altogether.

The researchers suggest that modern communication devices – mobile ‘phones, computers and television sets – could be used to educate the farmers. Non-governmental organisations “with their closer contacts with rural people than most government officials” could play a valuable role both in testing ideas and obtaining feedback.

SRI and another longer-established method of cultivation, called in the US no-till agriculture, where land is not ploughed but seeds are drilled direct into the topsoil, are the best hope of increasing food production.

No-till agriculture, or conservation agriculture (CA) as it is called elsewhere, works well on poor soils where erosion is a problem and mulch is applied to keep moisture and nutrition in the soil.

The paper concludes: “In the coming decades CA and SRI appear to offer the best hope of increasing food production rapidly, at low cost and without adverse environmental consequences in developing countries where human populations are increasing most rapidly.” – Climate News Network

The Geographical Journal, March, 2013: Combining sustainable agricultural production with economic and environmental benefits, Amir Kassam and Hugh Brammer.

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by alex kirby

US farmers face fraught future

February 7, 2013 in Science

EMBARGOED till 0001 GMT on Thursday 7 February

Rising temperatures may not suit livestock Image: Ad Meskens

Rising temperatures may not suit livestock    Image: Ad Meskens

By Alex Kirby

US farms could be hit hard by climate change, says a study by the country’s Department of Agriculture. It says farmers could lose millions of dollars to rising temperatures, faster-growing weeds, smaller yields and new pests.

LONDON, 7 February – Climate change may force American farmers to alter where they grow crops and to spend millions of dollars more tackling weeds, pests and diseases, a report says. It urges them to consider this as a risk they may have to manage.

The report, by the US Agriculture Department, says American farmers have managed to adapt to environmental changes for nearly 150 years. But the accelerating pace and intensity of global warming in the next few decades might soon overwhelm it.

“We’re going to end up in a situation where we have a multitude of things happening that are going to negatively impact crop production,” said Jerry Hatfield, a plant physiologist with USDA’s Agricultural Research Service and lead author of the study. “In fact, we saw this in 2012 with the drought.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says 2012 was the hottest year in the US since record-keeping began in 1895, overtaking the previous record by 1°F (-17.2°C). The country suffered its worst drought in over 50 years.

The report’s authors say US cropland agriculture will resist climate change fairly well during the next 25 years. Farmers will be able to minimize the impact of warming by changing their timetables and using crop varieties more resilient to drought, disease and heat. More use of irrigation and moving production to regions with a more clement temperature will also help.

But by mid-century adaptation becomes more difficult and expensive as crops and livestock need to become ever more adaptable, something which will leave their productivity increasingly unpredictable. Temperature increases and more extreme swings in precipitation could cause yields of major crops to fall.

“We can’t just stand back and let these natural conditions occur”

This is because higher temperatures will cause crops to mature more quickly, reducing the growing season. Faster growth could cut grain, fodder, fibre and fruit production if nutrients or water run short.

Among the biggest threats is an increase in the cost of weed control, which could reach more than $11 billion annually. Warmer weather will be ideal for weeds but can also stunt the growth of traditional crops like grains and soya.

The entire US is likely to warm substantially during the next 40 years, by1 to 2°C over much of the country, the study says. The rise is likely to reach 2 to 3°C in many inland regions.

It says climate change will harm livestock by affecting an animal’s optimal core body temperature, which could hurt productivity. Warmer and more humid weather is likely to increase the prevalence of insects and diseases, further damaging animal health.

The report, by a team of authors from the federal government, universities, the private sector and other groups, involved a review of more than 1,400 publications  which examined the effect of climate change on US agriculture.

In a separate report, the USDA looks at literature reviewing the impact of climate change on the country’s forests. This showed the most visible and significant short-term effects on them will come from fire, insects, invasive species or a mix of all three.

Wildfires are likely to increase throughout the USA, causing at least a doubling of the area burnt by mid-century. “That’s the conservative end,” said Dave Cleaves, a climate change adviser with the USDA’s Forest Service. “We can’t just stand back and let these natural conditions occur.” – Climate News Network

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