Big cities head for water crisis as populations explode

Big cities head for water crisis as populations explode

With more than half the world’s population now in cities, scientists warn that inadequate surface water supplies will leave many at increasing risk of drought.

LONDON, 21 February, 2015 − More than 40% of the world’s great cities supplied by surface water could become vulnerable to shortages and drought by 2040, according to new research. And more than three out of 10 were already vulnerable in 2010.

Meanwhile, the vital array of satellites designed to monitor rainfall and to warn of potential flooding is reported to be coming to the end of its shelf life.

For the first time in history, more than half the world’s population is now concentrated in cities, and this proportion is predicted to increase to two-thirds. Cities grow up near plentiful water supplies − and as a population explodes, so does demand. But the flow remains much the same.

Some cities are already under drought stress. Chennai in southern India had to be supplied with tankers in 2004 and 2005, and São Paulo in Brazil is now at crisis point.

Supply analysis

Environmental scientist Julie Padowski and Steven Gorelick, director of the Global Freshwater Initiative at Stanford University in California, report in Environmental Research Letters that they analysed supplies to 70 cities in 39 countries, all of them with more than 750,000 inhabitants, and all of them reliant on surface water.

They defined vulnerability as the failure of an urban supply basin to meet demands from human, environmental and agricultural users, and they set the supply target as 4,600 litres per person per day – which factors in “virtual water”, defined as the total volume of water needed to produce and process a commodity or service.

They proposed three different kinds of measure of supply. If a city failed to meet one or two of these metrics, it was considered threatened. If it failed to meet all three, it was rated as vulnerable.

Importantly, the scientists did not factor in climate change, which is likely to make conditions worse. Instead, they simply considered current demand and supply, and then projected demand in 2040.

Of their 70 cities, they found that 25 (36%) could already be considered vulnerable by 2010. By 2040, this number had grown to 31 (44%).

The six cities that will begin to face water shortages are Dublin in Ireland, Charlotte in the US, Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso, and Guangzhou, Wuhan and Nanjing in China.

Most of the cities that are already vulnerable rely on reservoirs, and the study implies that urban planners will need to think about more reservoirs, deeper wells or desalination plants, or will have to contemplate the diversion of rivers from somewhere else.

Rainfall data

Meanwhile, they cannot rely on rainfall data because – as geological engineer Patrick Reed, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Cornell University, and colleagues report in Environmental Research Letters − the network of dedicated satellites “fails to meet operational data needs for flood management”.

Four of the 10 satellites have exceeded their design life − some by more than a decade. There are already weak spots in the network, especially in developing countries, which means that floods could take people by surprise.

Space-based instruments offer a way of monitoring rainfall and ground moisture upstream, in a way that gives authorities time to predict the moment when the rivers will start to rise and flood the cities. When four fail to deliver, the potential for catastrophe will be even worse.

So the scientists call for better international co-ordination of satellite replacement.

“It is important for us to start thinking as a globe about a serious discussion on flood adaptation and aiding affected populations to reduce their risks,” Professor Reed says. “We want to give people time to evacuate, to make better choices, and to understand their conditions.” – Climate News Network

Share This:

Climate impacts on European farmers’ yields per field

Climate impacts on European farmers’ yields per field

Scientists says changes in temperature and snow or rainfall are key factors in the stagnation of wheat and barley yields across Europe since the early 1990s.

LONDON, 19 February, 2015 – Farmers in Europe have already begun to feel the pinch of climate change as yields of wheat since 1989 have fallen by 2.5% and barley by 3.8% on average across the whole continent.

And two Californian scientists now believe that changes in temperature and snow or rainfall during the last quarter of a century are at least partly to blame.

The pinch may be gentle, but environmental scientists Frances Moore and David Lobell, of Stanford University, believe it is real.

They report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that although changes in farming and environmental policies explain much of the stagnation of yields in Europe in the last 25 years, at least 10% of this change could be attributed to climate trends.

Sugarbeet and maize harvests have gone up slightly − and that, too, could be pinned on global warming.

Overall trends

It is no small challenge to find an overall trend to crop yields across a continent that stretches from Scotland to the Black Sea, from northern Norway to Sicily, and over a timescale that embraces floods, droughts, forest fires and heat waves that may or may not have been made worse or more frequent by global warming, but which would have occurred anyway.

The other complication is that, in the same 25 years, the patterns of agricultural subsidy and market demand have also changed.

But the Stanford scientists started with conditions on the farms in the 1980s, when Europe’s farmers were, on average, getting 0.12 more tonnes of wheat and barley per hectare than the year before. Yields per field were rising steadily.

“Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change impacts”

“If they had continued growing at that rate after 1995, wheat and barley yields would be 30% and 37% higher today, respectively,” they write.

Climate trends could perhaps account for around 10% of the stagnation revealed in the statistics. The remaining change could be put down to economic and political shifts and other factors.

One of these would be that crops had been improving to a point called the biophysical limits: just how much weight of grain could one stalk hold anyway? So some change would be expected, and climate must be a component of that.

To arrive at their conclusion, the two scientists looked at the predictions made for climate change – southern Europe was always expected to become drier, but farmers in moist northern climates could benefit from temperature increases – and the available data, and then applied sophisticated mathematical probability techniques to isolate the possible impact of climate change so far.

Social costs

They have looked at the economic and social challenges of global warming before. Last year, they warned that Europe’s farmers were going to have to adapt to climate change in the 21st century, and Moore and a colleague claimed last month that economists had badly underestimated the economic and social costs of each tonne of carbon added to the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The new research is, they argue, important because “agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change impacts, but few studies have statistically connected long-term changes in temperature and rainfall with yields.

“Doing so in Europe is particularly important because yields of wheat and barley have plateaued since the early 1990s ,and climate change has been suggested as a cause of this stagnation.” – Climate News Network

Share This:

Stalagmite links rain reduction to industrial revolution

Stalagmite links rain reduction to industrial revolution

Research shows the explosion of fossil fuel use to power the 19th-century industrial boom began the pattern of lower rainfall affecting the northern tropics. 

LONDON, 17 February, 2015 − Scientists have identified a human-induced cause of climate change. But this time it’s not carbon dioxide that’s the problem − it’s the factory and power station chimney pollutants that began to darken the skies during the industrial revolution.

Analysis of stalagmite samples taken from a cave in Belize, Central America, has revealed that aerosol emissions have led to a reduction of rainfall in the northern tropics during the 20th century.

In effect, the report in Nature Geoscience by lead author Harriet Ridley, of the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Durham, UK, and international research colleagues invokes the first atmospheric crisis.

Acid rain

Before global warming because of greenhouse gases, and before ozone destruction caused by uncontrolled releases of chlorofluorocarbons, governments and environmentalists alike were concerned about a phenomenon known as acid rain.

So much sulphur and other industrial pollutants entered the atmosphere that raindrops became deliveries of very dilute sulphuric and nitric acid.

The damage to limestone buildings was visible everywhere, and there were concerns – much more difficult to establish – that acid rain was harming the northern European forests.

But even if the massive sulphate discharges of an industrialising world did not seriously damage vegetation, they certainly took a toll on urban human life in terms of respiratory diseases.

Clean-air legislation has reduced the hazard in Europe and North America, but it seems that sulphate aerosols have left their mark.

Researchers in a cave in Belize. Credit: Dr James Baldini/Durham University

Researchers in a cave in Belize.
Image: Dr James Baldini/Durham University

The Durham scientists reconstructed tropic rainfall patterns for the last 450 years from the analysis of stalagmite samples taken from a cave in Belize.

The pattern of precipitation revealed a substantial drying trend from 1850 onwards, and this coincided with a steady rise in sulphate aerosol pollution following the explosion of fossil fuel use that powered the Industrial Revolution.

They also identified nine short-lived drying spells in the northern tropics that followed a series of violent volcanic eruptions in the northern hemisphere. Volcanoes are a natural source of atmospheric sulphur.

Atmospheric pollution

The research confirms earlier suggestions that human atmospheric pollution sufficient to mask the sunlight and cool the upper atmosphere had begun to affect the summer monsoons of Asia, and at the same time stepped up river flow in northern Europe.

The change in radiation strength shifted the tropical rainfall belt, known as the intertropical convergence zone, towards the warmer southern hemisphere, which meant lower levels of precipitation in the northern tropics.

“The research presents strong evidence that industrial sulphate emissions have shifted this important rainfall belt, particularly over the last 100 years,” Dr Ridley says.

“Although warming due to man-made carbon dioxide emissions has been of global importance, the shifting of rain belts due to aerosol emissions is locally critical, as many regions of the world depend on this seasonal rainfall for agriculture.” – Climate News Network

Share This:

Arid areas of US face prospect of ‘megadroughts’

Arid areas of US face prospect of ‘megadroughts’

Scientists in the US predict droughts worse than the extreme conditions believed to have played a part in ending a once-flourishing medieval culture.

LONDON, 15 February, 2015The Central Plains and Southwest region of the US face “unprecedented” droughts later this century, according to new research.

While Midwest states have experienced ever more flooding over the last 50 years, the regions already suffering from extremes of aridity are being warned to expect megadroughts worse than any conditions in the last 1,000 years.

Climate scientist Benjamin Cook, of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, and colleagues report in a new journal, Science Advances, that they looked at historical evidence, climate projections and ways of calculating soil moisture.

They found that the drought conditions of the future American west will be more severe than the hottest, most arid extended droughts of the 12th and 13th centuries, which are thought to have played a role in ending the once-flourishing Pueblo culture of the American Southwest.

Computer predictions

The growth rings of trees provided the evidence for reconstructions of what climatologists call the warm Medieval period, and the researchers matched the picture from the past with 17 different computer model predictions of the climate later in the 21st century.

The conclusions were ominous: nearly all the models predicted that the Plains and the Southwest would become drier than at any time in the last 1,000 years.

Even though winter rain and snowfall could increase in parts of California – currently in the grip of calamitous drought – in the decades to come, overall there will be lower cold season precipitation and, because of higher temperatures, ever more evaporation and ever more water demand for the surviving vegetation.

The authors conclude: “Ultimately, the consistency of our results suggests an exceptionally high risk of a multidecadal megadrought occurring over the Central Plains and Southwest regions during the late 21st century, a level of aridity exceeding even the persistent megadroughts that characterised the Medieval era.”

“I was honestly surprised at just how dry the future is likely to be”

Co-author Toby Ault, head of the Emergent Climate Risk Lab at Cornell University, warned of future megadroughts only last year. He says: “I was honestly surprised at just how dry the future is likely to be.”

But to the north, in the American Midwest, conditions have begun to change in a different way. Iman Mallakour and Gabriele Villarini, of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Iowa, collected evidence from 774 stream gauges in 14 states from 1962 to 2011.

Flood events

They report in Nature Climate Change that a third of them had recorded a greater number of flood events, and only one in 10 recorded a decrease.

The pattern of increase extended from North Dakota south to Iowa and Missouri, and east to Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

The region was hit by economically-disastrous, billion-dollar floods in 1993, 2008, 2011, 2013 and 2014. The researchers wanted to see whether flooding was really on the increase, or whether perception of greater flooding was what they called “an artefact of our relatively short collective memory”.

The result is a confirmation of perceived increase. It was not an artefact.

“It’s not that big floods are getting bigger, but that we have been experiencing a larger number of big floods,” Dr Villarini says. – Climate News Network

Share This:

Rice serves up double measure of biofuel and fodder

Rice serves up double measure of biofuel and fodder

An inexpensive process developed in Japan will allow farmers to produce their own tractor fuel and cattle feed in one simple step.

LONDON,12 February, 2015 − Japanese scientists have found a potential answer to the biofuel dilemma that if you grow crops for energy, you have to sacrifice crops for food.

They report that they can now ferment rice to deliver ethanol, while making silage for cattle feed –and that it can all be done on the farm without need for any expensive off-site processes.

Mitsuo Horita, of the National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences in Tsukuba, Japan, and colleagues write in the journal Biotechnology for Biofuels that they used a process of solid-state fermentation known to temperate zone farmers everywhere: grass or cereal is harvested, compressed, sealed, and fermented in the absence of oxygen.

Pickled product

The outcome is a pickled product that is both nourishing and palatable to cattle during the winter months − and a mix of liquid hydrocarbon products that must be disposed of in ways that won’t pollute water supplies or harm fish and wildlife.

The Japanese research team packed harvested whole rice plants with yeast and enzymes into bales wrapped in impermeable film.

Sugars and starch in the rice were converted by the yeast into ethanol, which could then be drained and distilled for fuel. And at the end of the process, the bale still contained nourishing silage.

For each bale, after six months of fermentation, the researchers collected 12.4kg of pure ethanol, or alcohol − which is about 10 times more than anyone could expect from traditional silage fermentation. The bales also leaked effluent ethanol at the rate of about 1.7kg a bale.

“Our system simply builds upon traditional processes already used by farmers for producing silage for animal feed”

Biofuels are often seen as a solution that creates more problems. Will increased “green energy” mean high grain prices? Will specialist biofuel crops escape from the farms and cause wider problems for the environment? Could biofuels be more efficiently made from waste, or from natural sources not for the moment of any commercial value? This new approach sidesteps some nagging questions.

“Generally, the bottlenecks in second-generation biofuel production include the need for large facilities, bulky material transport, and complicated treatment processes, all of which are costly and consume a great deal of energy,” Horita says.

“What we’ve now demonstrated is a complete and scaled-up system that shows its potential in a practical on-farm situation. Instead of a complicated process requiring special facilities, our system simply builds upon traditional processes already used by farmers for producing silage for animal feed.

Zero waste

“It results in a high yield of ethanol, while producing good quality feed, with zero waste.”

In effect, the team has delivered fodder and tractor fuel in one step.

Fermentation takes longer than usual, but no extra energy needs to be supplied for the process, and the alcohol drawn off contained no insoluble particles, and so would make it easier to handle.

The researchers used a vacuum distiller to get at 86% of the baled alcohol, but they concede they must do more to improve both the yield and the recovery of the ethanol.

Meanwhile, they point out, they have shown the way to an on-farm fuel system that could help farmers in the developing world, and which exploits the same field for food and fuel at the same time. − Climate News Network

Share This:

Power brokers’ chains hold back forests protection

Power brokers’ chains hold back forests protection

UK thinktank says inaction by the ‘Forest 500’ means global efforts to end deforestation by 2030 are not keeping pace with the rate of destruction.

LONDON, 11 February, 2015 − The world will not, on present rates of progress, reach its goal of ending tropical deforestation within 15 years.

The Global Canopy Programme (GCP), a thinktank based in Oxford, UK, says many of those who could protect the forests by ensuring that deforestation does not contribute to commodity supply chains are failing to act.

The GCP, which draws together international experts on tropical forests, has compiled what it says is the first comprehensive ranking of the “Forest 500 − power brokers who control the global supply chains that drive over half of tropical deforestation.

Influential actors

It has identified, assessed and ranked 250 companies, with total annual revenues of more than US$4.5 trillion; 150 investors and lenders; 50 countries and regions; and 50 other influential actors, as it calls them – a wide-ranging group of banks, international agencies and non-governmental organisations.

Together, the 500 control the complex global supply chains of key “forest risk commodities” − such as soya, palm oil, beef, leather, timber, pulp and paper − that have an annual trade value of more than $100 billion and are found in over 50% of packaged products in supermarkets.

The GCP says only a small minority of the 500 have equipped themselves to tackle this problem, which makes a significant contribution to climate change and other environmental problems, as well as worsening poverty.

Deforestation and land use change cause more than 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions, undermine regional water security, and threaten the livelihoods of more than a billion people.

Assessed against dozens of policy indicators, only seven of the Forest 500 scored the maximum number of points − companies Groupe Danone (France), Kao Corp. (Japan), Nestlé S.A. (Switzerland), Procter & Gamble (US), Reckitt Benckiser Group (UK), Unilever (UK), and banking and financial services giant HSBC (UK).

“Deforestation is in our chocolate and our toothpaste, our animal feed and textbooks, buildings and furniture, investments and pensions”

At the other end of the scale, the GCP says, 30 companies − many based in Asia and the Middle East − and numerous investors scored zero points. Countries received varied scores, with Latin American nations scoring high in forested regions and the Netherlands and Germany coming top among countries that import forest risk commodities.

Of investors assessed, sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds scored very low for their sustainable investment policies, while banks achieved higher scores.

“We are currently all part of a global deforestation economy,” says Mario Rautner, a GCP programme manager.  “Deforestation is in our chocolate and our toothpaste, our animal feed and our textbooks, our buildings and our furniture, our investments and our pensions.”

“Our goal with the Forest 500 is to provide precise and actionable information to measure the progress of society to achieve zero deforestation.

Global supply chains

“Together, these 500 countries, companies and investors have the power to clean up global supply chains and virtually put an end to tropical deforestation.”

He adds: “Though the Forest 500 findings highlight that much work needs to be done, the good news is that a number of big players across sectors are demonstrating the leadership that is needed.

“Putting policies in place is just the necessary first step in addressing tropical deforestation, and their implementation will be critical in order to transition to deforestation-free supply chains by 2020.”

At the UN Climate Summit last year, prominent representatives from business, governments, indigenous communities and civil society signed the New York Declaration on Forests. It spells out ambitious commitments to halve deforestation by 2020 and to end it by 2030.

A similar pledge to achieve net zero deforestation by 2020 has been made by the Consumer Goods Forum, a global association of companies and service providers, including major manufacturers and retailers. − Climate News Network

Share This:

EU aids shoppers to steer clear of harmful palm oil

EU aids shoppers to steer clear of harmful palm oil

New food labelling rules on giving consumers in Europe more information should help to protect the world’s tropical forests and the climate.

LONDON, 6 February, 2015 A European Union decision to give consumers more information about the food they buy could mean good news for tropical countries whose forests are threatened by the expanding trade in palm oil.

Palm oil is found in 50% of supermarket products, such as soaps and shampoos, and in many sorts of food. But the EU requirement that food products containing the oil must now be labelled clearly should help to dispel doubts about the damage it can cause.

Producing the oil often involves felling virgin rainforest, reducing biodiversity and destroying the habitat of endangered species such as orangutans, elephants and tigers, and ruining the livelihoods of local people.

It also involves the release of large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere when carbon-rich tropical forests are cleared for plantations.

Short-term impact

The EU move is not expected to change things overnight. Simon Counsell, executive director of the Rainforest Foundation UK, said: “We imagine that the impact in the short term will be fairly limited, as it’s hard to see busy people scanning through a long list of ingredients on manufactured foods to see if the product contains palm oil.

“So we believe there is still very much a need for a clear and simple product guide such as ours, so that people can know to avoid altogether products that contain palm oil.”

Indonesia and Malaysia produce 85% of the global palm oil supply, and wholesale logging there is a direct threat to some of the last remaining habitats of orangutans. There are thought to be around only 60,000 surviving in the wild.

Elizabeth Clarke, business and biodiversity programme manager at the Zoological Society of London, said: “Palm oil production is vital to the economies of countries where it is grown, but it also has serious negative environmental impacts, particularly if grown unsustainably.

“We don’t have any space left to farm − we don’t benefit from anything”

“We are working with the industry to promote sustainable practices and responsible investment through our new Sustainable Palm Oil Transparency Toolkit, SPOTT.

“More is needed to reduce pressures on wildlife, ensuring a future for the remaining 300 Sumatran tigers whose habitat is at severe risk of being lost from deforestation as a result of irresponsible practices.”

New areas face threats in Africa and Latin America. In the Congo, for example, a million acres are already being cultivated for palm oil, with a further 284 million acres of pristine rainforest currently at risk. The Congo contains the world’s second largest tropical rainforest − after the Amazon − and is one of the most important wilderness areas left on Earth.

Many people living in the forests feel powerless. Chief André Sayom, head of the village of Nkollo, in Cameroon, told the Rainforest Foundation: “We don’t have any space left to farm. We don’t benefit from anything. We’ve been displaced more than once already.

Explicit statement

Life becomes very difficult when these multinationals set foot somewhere. These projects need to be looked at in the long term, and populations need to be informed and consulted”.

The new EU rules, introduced last December, require companies that use palm oil in their food products to label them with an explicit statement, rather than simply relying on vague, catch-all references to “vegetable oil”. They can also now highlight their use of certified sustainable palm oil

Unilever is one of the world’s major buyers of palm oil, purchasing around 1.5 million tonnes annually about 3% of global production. It promised that all the oil directly sourced for its European foods business would be 100% traceable and certified sustainable from the end of 2014.

Palm oil production is big business. The industry is worth $44 billion, with the world consuming 55 million tonnes in 2013 − nearly four times the 1990 total. And the World Bank expects today’s global demand to have doubled by 2020. Climate News Network

Share This:

California is left high and dry by cannabis growers

California is left high and dry by cannabis growers

As California endures its worst drought since records began, illegal marijuana plantations are being blamed for further depleting precious water resources.

MENDOCINO, 4 February, 2015 − Take a flight over the densely forested area in California’s northern coastal region and it’s not hard to spot the marijuana plantations, their bright green plants standing out in clearings in the surrounding vegetation.

But now the big-money cannabis industry is being blamed for adding to water shortage problems caused by a three-year drought that has seriously affected California’s huge agricultural sector.

Although cultivating and using marijuana is illegal under US Federal law, California state law allows marijuana growing – as long as it is for medicinal purposes.

Rules flouted

However, the rules governing who can and cannot grow pot are complex – and openly flouted by thousands of growers, both big and small-time operators.

A report by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) estimates that, in this northern region of the state,  marijuana growing doubled between 2009 and 2012.

Marijuana plants are extremely thirsty, consuming between five and 10 gallons of water per day, depending on the phase of their growing cycle. Officials at the CDFW say that marijuana growers are sucking up precious water resources, exacerbating water shortages and threatening fish in the area’s lakes and streams.

Marijuana growing is particularly prevalent in an area of northern California known as The Emerald Triangle, encompassing Mendocino, Humbolt and Trinity counties. Some estimates say the crop accounts for up to 40% of the region’s economy.

Officials of the CDFW say that the small, well-established marijuana plantations – run by what are described as old time hippies − are not to blame for pumping up excess water.

Illegal marijuana plantations in forest clearings. Image: US Drug Enforcement Agency

Illegal marijuana plantations in forest clearings.
Image: US Drug Enforcement Administration

It is the incomers from outside the area − part of a “green rush” into highly-profitable marijuana growing – that are mainly to blame. These growers are out to make quick profits, and care little about the environment.

Growers of various crops in California are bound by rules stipulating that no more than 10% of the flow of water courses should be diverted for crops, and that such diversions should stop altogether in late summer, when water levels are at their lowest.

The CDFW says the incomers take vast amounts of water in order to harvest their crops as fast as possible. They also use excessive quantities of fertilizer, which leach into water courses, endangering fish stocks and polluting land.

Armed gangs

Fines of up to $8,000 per day are now being imposed for water theft, although monitoring illegal activities is difficult − and, at times, dangerous. Heavily-armed gangs are often involved in the marijuana growing business, and the CDFW has warned that, as the drought continues, conflicts over water resources are likely to increase.

The Emerald Growers Association, a group that represents some of northern California’s marijuana growers, says more regulation is needed to separate the legitimate pot growers from illegal ones.

The drought in California has been going on since 2011 and is described as the worst in the state since records began in the 1850s.

Arguments continue as to whether man-made climate change or natural phenomena are causing the drought.

Although significant amounts of rain last December helped alleviate dry conditions in some parts of the state, experts say more rain is urgently needed to feed watercourses and restock severely depleted aquifers. – Climate News Network

Share This:

Climate cranks up extinction threat to Borneo mammals

Climate cranks up extinction threat to Borneo mammals

Endangered species in one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots face even greater danger as climate change adds to loss of habitat caused by deforestation.

LONDON, 3 February, 2015 − One in three of the mammal species of Borneo could see their habitat reduced by a third by 2080 − just because of climate change alone.

Given that the rainforests of Borneo are right now also being felled, burned and converted to commercial plantation, nearly half of all mammal species will lose more than a third of their remaining home range within the next 65 years.

Among the first to feel the heat will be those species that are already endangered – creatures such as the greater nectar bat, the otter civet, and the flat-headed cat.

Conservation challenge

Matthew Struebig, a tropical ecologist at the University of Kent, in the UK, and colleagues report in the journal Current Biology that they considered the challenge of conservation in one of the world’s great biodiversity hotspots − but which is also under pressure from population growth, economic expansion and continued pressure on the last stands of one of the world’s great forests.

The researchers assembled a comprehensive map and inventory of data for 13 species of primate, 23 carnivores and 45 kinds of bat. Altogether, they examined 6,921 records and observations.

“Only a modest amount of additional land . . . would be needed outside of existing reserves to safeguard many mammal species”

They developed a framework to model the amount of suitable habitat that each of their 81 species needed, and tried to identify the forest land that – if saved from the woodsman’s axe – would be best suited as a natural reserve for that species.

Then they set about incorporating future conditions, dependent on different climate data. They ended up with eight versions for each species: a total of 4,698 maps describing the habitats of the large and small animals that swing through the tree canopy, nest in tree trunks, or hunt among the roots and underbrush.

It was calculated that somewhere between 11% and 36% of the island’s mammal species would lose 30% of their habitat by 2080, and the ecological conditions that suited them best would move uphill by between 23% and 46%, as global climate warmed because of greenhouse gas emissions.

Commercial pressures

Deforestation – which happens because of economic and commercial pressures, and is independent of climate change – would make things worse, so that 30% to 49% would lose a significant slice of living space.

Warnings like these are intended to prevent extinction − to preserve some of the remarkable fruits of millions of years of evolution − and the researchers will be presenting their findings to the governments of Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

“Only a modest amount of additional land on Borneo – about 28,000 square kilometres, or 4% of the island – would be needed outside of existing reserves to safeguard many mammal species against threats from deforestation and climate change,” Dr Struebig says. – Climate News Network

Share This:

California rains bring little relief from harsh drought

California rains bring little relief from harsh drought

Unless substantial rain falls soon, California’s worst drought on record threatens dire consequences for the state’s massive agricultural industry.

DAVIS, CALIFORNIA, 29 January, 2015 − Doing the right thing in the environs of the University of California, Davis – one of the foremost agricultural institutions in the US – means driving a carbon efficient car. And having a lawn that’s burned dry.

California’s worst drought on record is forcing people to cut back radically on water use – and that means letting lawns die. There was considerable rainfall last month, but it was not nearly enough to replenish the badly-depleted water resources.

“If we don’t have rain in significant amounts by early March, we’ll be in dire straits,” says Professor Daniel Sumner, director of the Agricultural Issues Center at Davis.

Water restrictions

Higher than average temperatures – particularly during the winter months – have combined with a lack of rainfall to produce severe drought conditions across much of the state. Water restrictions have been brought in following the imposition of a drought emergency in January last year.

“Historically, California’s water has been stored in the snow pack in the mountains, but warmer winter temperatures have meant the pack has been melting.” Sumner says.

“The agricultural sector has made considerable advances in limiting water use, and new, more drought resistant, crops and plant varieties have been introduced, but aquifers have been pumped and they are not being replenished.

“In the past, massive projects were undertaken to distribute water round the state, but now there’s not the money available to do any more big-time plumbing work. Also, the regulations on diverting water for agriculture use are very tight – rivers can’t be pumped if it means endangering fish stocks or other wildlife.”

“California is still growing – and exporting – rice, which is a real water drinker. How crazy is that?”

Whether or not climate change is causing the drought is a matter of considerable debate. A recent report sponsored by the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says natural oceanic and atmospheric patterns are the primary drivers behind the drought.

A high pressure ridge that has hovered over the Pacific off California’s coast for the past three years has resulted in higher temperatures and little rainfall falling across the state, the report says.

However, a separate report by climate scientists at Stanford University says the existence of the high pressure ridge, which is preventing rains falling over California, is made much more likely by ever greater accumulations of climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.

Whatever the cause of the drought, the lack of rain is doing considerable environmental and economic damage. The Public Policy Institute of California, a not-for-profit thinktank, estimates that $2.2 billion in agricultural revenues and more than 17,000 jobs have been lost as a result of the drought.

Severely depleted

Thousands of acres of woodland have been lost due to wildfires, while fisheries experts are concerned that severely depleted streams and rivers could lead to the disappearance of fish species in the area, such as coho salmon and steelhead trout.

The drought is not limited to California. Adjacent states are also affected, and over the US border to the south, in Mexico’s Chihuahua state, crops have been devastated and 400,000 cattle have died.

Frank Green, a vineyard owner in the hills of Mendocino County, northern California, says: “The vines are pretty robust and, despite the drought, our wines have been some of the best ever over the past two years.

“But there’s no doubt we need a lot more rain, and plenty more could be done on saving and harvesting water. Farmers have cut back on growing water-hungry crops like cotton, but California is still growing – and exporting – rice, which is a real water drinker. How crazy is that?” – Climate News Network

Share This: