Climate change’s threat of space centre invasion

Climate change's threat of space centre invasion

Rising sea levels and repeated storm damage to natural coastal defences pose an increasing threat to the famous Cape Canaveral rocket launch site in Florida.

LONDON, 15 December, 2014 − Climate change has begun to make its mark on one of America’s most iconic sites – the Kennedy Space Centre at Cape Canaveral in Florida.

Within a decade, according to geologists, the combination punch of rising sea levels and increasing wave energy could start to affect operations at the site where, more than five decades ago, astronauts were launched towards a landing on the Moon.

Peter Adams and John Jaeger, of the University of Florida, have since 2009 been studying the dunes and the beach at Cape Canaveral that historically screened the launch site from even the worst tropical storms.

These dunes were levelled in 2008 during Tropical Storm Fay, in 2011 during Hurricane Irene, and again in 2012 during Hurricane Sandy.

Washed away

Storm waves repeatedly covered a stretch of railroad track built by the US space agency NASA during the 1960s. The line is no longer used, and part of it has been removed to make room for a protective man-made dune. NASA’s own prediction in 2010 was that the line could be permanently breached by 2016.

Hurricane Sandy, the superstorm  that brought catastrophic flooding to New York and caused damage along almost all the US Atlantic seaboard, washed away a section of Cape Canaveral shoreline so close to a US Air Force launch pad that the surrounding fence was left near collapse.

“When you put immovable infrastructure right next to a dynamic environment, something has to give”

Coastal erosion is an enduring fact of life, but during the 1960s the Cape seemed a secure site for one of the great 20th-century adventures.

The two geologists, working as partners with NASA and the US Geological Survey, began looking at a problem that seemed to have been getting worse since 2004: chronic erosion of a six-mile stretch between the two launch pads used for the Apollo missions and space shuttle launches.

According to Dr Adams, the slow rise in sea levels and the increased energy of the ocean’s storm waves – both symptoms of global warming – are almost certainly to blame. He said: “Is it affecting NASA’s infrastructure? The answer’s yes.”

Although man-made dunes will protect the site for the immediate future, the space agency has already spoken of a “managed retreat”. And Dr Jaeger  said: “When you put immovable infrastructure right next to a dynamic environment, something has to give.”

Evidence of flooding

As a coastal facility, Cape Canaveral is naturally vulnerable to hurricanes, which tend to lose their energy as they hit the coasts. But University of Iowa scientists report in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society that they have found evidence of flooding by tropical cyclones as far inland as Iowa, in the Midwest.

Gabriele Villarini, a civil and environmental engineer, found the evidence in 30 years’ worth of discharge records from more than 3,000 US Geological Survey stream measurement stations.

Between 1981 and 2011, the US was hit by more than 100 tropical cyclones or hurricanes that did their worst damage at the coast, but could also be linked with major flooding far inland.

“Our results indicate that flooding from tropical cyclones affects large areas of the US and the Midwest, as far inland as Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan,” Villarini said. – Climate News Network

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Deep concern over invisible threat to Antarctic glaciers

Deep concern over invisible threat to Antarctic glaciers

As ocean temperatures rise, warmer currents are attacking the Antarctic ice sheet from below and adding to the threats posed by a melting rate that has trebled in the last two decades.

LONDON, 13 December, 2014 − The Antarctic ice shelf is under threat from a silent, invisible agency – and the rate of melting of glaciers has trebled in the last two decades.

The ocean waters of the deep circumpolar current that swirl around the continent have been getting measurably warmer and nearer the ocean surface over the last 40 years, and now they could be accelerating glacier flow by melting the ice from underneath, according to new research.

And a separate study reports that the melting of the West Antarctic glaciers has accelerated threefold in the last 21 years.

Calamitous consequences

If the West Antarctic ice sheet were to melt altogether – something that is not likely to happen this century – the world’s sea levels would rise by 4.8 metres, with calamitous consequences for seaboard cities and communities everywhere.

Researchers from Germany, Britain, Japan and the US report in Science journal that they base their research on long-term studies of seawater temperature and salinity sampled from the Antarctic continental shelf.

This continued intrusion of warmer waters has accelerated the melting of glaciers in West Antarctica, and there is no indication that the trend is likely to reverse.

Other parts of the continent so far are stable – but they could start melting for the first time.

“The Antarctic ice sheet is a giant water reservoir,” said Karen Heywood, professor of environmental sciences at the University of East Anglia, UK. “The ice cap on the southern continent is on average 2,100 metres thick and contains 70% of the world’s fresh water. If this ice mass were to melt completely, it could raise global sea level by 60 metres. That is not going to happen, but it gives you an idea of how much water is stored there.”

“These waters have warmed . . . and  are significantly shallower than 50 years ago”

Temperatures in the warmest waters in the Bellinghausen Sea in West Antarctica have risen from 0.8°C in the 1970s to about 1.2°C in the last few years.

“This might not sound much, but it is a large amount of extra heat available to melt the ice,” said Sunke Schmidtko, an oceanographer at the Geomar Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany, who led the study. “These waters have warmed in West Antarctica over 50 years. And they are significantly shallower than 50 years ago.”

The apparent rise of warm water, and the observed melting of the West Antarctic ice shelf, could be linked to long-term changes in wind patterns in the southern ocean. Although melting has not yet been observed in other parts of the continent, there could be serious consequences for other ice shelves.

The shelf areas are where the Antarctic krill – the little shrimp that plays a vital role in the Antarctic ocean food chain – are getting warmer, with unpredictable consequences for spawning cycles, and then for ocean biodiversity.

Meanwhile, according to US scientists writing in Geophysical Research Letters, the glaciers of the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica are shedding ice faster than any other part of the region.

Tyler Sutterley, a climate researcher at the University of California Irvine, and NASA space agency colleagues used four sets of observations to confirm the threefold acceleration.

They took their data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, from a NASA airborne project called Operation IceBridge, from an earlier satellite called ICESat, and from readings by the European Space Agency’s Envisat satellite.

Loss calculated

The observations spanned the period 1992 to 2013 and enabled the researchers to calculate the total loss of ice, and also the rate of change of that loss.

In all, during that period the continent lost 83 gigatonnes, or 83 billion metric tonnes, of ice per year on average. Since Mount Everest weighs an estimated 161 billion tonnes, this is as if the ice cap lost an Everest’s worth of ice every two years.

After 1992, the rate of loss accelerated by 6.1 billion tonnes a year, and between 2003 and 2009 the melt rate increased by 16.3 gigatonnes a year on average. So the increasing rate of loss is now nearly three times the original figure.

“The mass loss of these glaciers is increasing at an amazing rate,” said Isabella Velicogna, Earth system scientist at both UC Irvine and the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. – Climate News Network

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Plea for South Asia to unite in fight against climate risks

Plea for South Asia to unite in fight against climate risks

Saleem Shaikh

South Asia, one of the world’s most populous and disaster-prone regions, faces dire impacts from climate change. So why are its nations not working together to tackle the many shared threats they face?

LIMA, 8 December, 2014 − The countries of South Asia need to stand together in their efforts to push for more finance from the developed world to help them adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change,  a prominent regional expert says.

Saleemul Huq, from Bangladesh, a lead negotiator for the group of Least Developed Countries told a fringe meeting at the UN climate change conference in Lima, Peru, that South Asia countries face a range of climate-related events.

“Countries in the region must co-ordinate climate action to cope with adverse climate impacts, such as flash floods, forest fires, cyclones, migration and sea-level rise.” said Huq, senior fellow in the Climate Change Group at the International Institute for Environment and Development.

The South Asia region is home to more than one-fifth of the globe’s population, but is also regarded as one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world, Huq told delegates.

Substantial rise

Temperature projections for the region for the 21st century indicate a substantial rise in warming, with recent modelling showing that the warming would be particularly significant in the high Himalayas, on the Tibetan Plateau, and across arid regions of Asia.

“Extreme weather events are also forecast across the region” said Huq. “This is likely to include an increase in the interannual variability of precipitation during the Asian summer monsoon period.”

In turn, Huq said, this will negatively impact on crop yields throughout the region, as already crops in many areas are already being grown at close to their temperature tolerance threshold.

In its latest assessment, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identified the South Asia region as one of the areas most vulnerable to warming.

“Developing states have to have technical support in order to hammer out their climate adaptation plans”

In the high Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau, rates of glacial melting are increasing. The incidence of flooding is likely to grow, although there is the possibility, over the long term, of drought affecting billions of people in one of the most densely-populated areas on Earth.

Co-operation between the region’s countries on climate change is minimal. Pakistan and India, for example, remain deeply suspicious of each other, and data on such key issues as river flows and erosion rates are classified as state secrets.

China and India are competing for water resources, and large-scale dam building programmes in both countries are creating environmental tensions in the region.

Competing interests

Less powerful countries in the area – such as Bangladesh and Nepal – are squeezed between the competing interests of their powerful neighbours.

Harjeet Singh, a New Delhi-based representative of the Action Aid  charity, told delegates that South Asian countries must use their combined influence to pressure world leaders to reach a legally-binding climate agreement in 2015.

Singh told the Climate News Network that a new agreement was a matter of urgency, and  that developed countries must also fulfill their commitments to help developing countries with adaptation measures.

Manjeet Dhakal, a director of the Clean Energy Nepal research organisation, said a new agreement must address the needs of the vulnerable. “The regional countries and other developing states,” he said, “have to have technical support in order to hammer out their climate adaptation plans. They also need the financial support to put those plans into action.” – Climate News Network

  • Saleem Shaikh is a freelance climate change and science journalist based in Islamabad, Pakistan.

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Yellow submarine is a big hit for Antarctic records

Yellow submarine is a big hit for Antarctic records

A new underwater robot is revolutionising important research into the thickness of the sea ice floating off Antarctica’s coasts by looking up from the depths to create detailed 3-D maps.

LONDON, 27 November, 2014 − For the first time, researchers have begun to collect accurate data on the thickness of the sea ice around Antarctica.

A new underwater robot called SeaBED has begun to deliver a clear picture of the greatest mass of floating frozen water on the planet. And the first evidence is that the ice is thicker than anyone had realised: on average somewhere between 1.4 and 5.5 metres, but sometimes as much as 16 metres or more.

Although scientists can keep an eye on the precise extent of the seasonal ice, thanks to consistent satellite data, looking beneath the rim of floating ice that surrounds the enormous continent has been more of a problem. But it’s a problem SeaBED is now addressing by producing the first detailed, high-resolution 3-D maps of Antarctic sea ice.

Baseline measurement

Ice thickness measurements are not easy. During the Cold War, nuclear submarines routinely cruised under the Arctic Ocean ice, making measurements – for navigational safety reasons, rather than climate research. But, in consequence, when the Arctic ice sheet started to melt and dwindle, researchers had a baseline of accurate measurement.

The Antarctic, however, is a partly-submerged rocky continent that bears a huge burden of snow and ice. Shipboard and shore-based studies can provide only a limited set of measurements of ice thickness off its coasts.

Now Guy Williams, a polar oceanographer at theUniversity of Tasmania Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, and colleagues from the British Antarctic Survey  and other institutions, report in Nature Geoscience that at last they have a clearer picture of the ice thickness, and therefore a better chance of calculating how sea ice is likely to change as the planet’s climate continues to warm.

“We can now measure in far greater detail, and were excited to measure ice up to 17 metres thick”

SeaBED, technically described as an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), is a little yellow submarine two metres long and weighing 200 kg. It was designed and built by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in the US.

In 2010 and 2012 it made a series of autonomous underwater traverses in lawnmower fashion, at depths of 20-30 metres. Most surveying instruments look down, but this one looks up at the ice above it.

There has been a level of alarm at change in Antarctica in recent years. Although the sea ice during recent polar winters has been greater than ever there has been concern about the rate at which some Antarctic glaciers are melting − with worrying consequences for the rate of sea level rise.

Accurate estimates

So the more accurate the information about the volumes of ice formed and lost, the more accurate the estimates of future sea level rise, and the better the understanding of the polar climate machinery.

The AUV measurements – especially when backed up by direct measurements, radar and satellite studies – promise to provide a real insight into the nature of Antarctic sea ice.

Jeremy Wilkinson, lead investigator at the British Antarctic Survey, says: “We can now measure in far greater detail, and were excited to measure ice up to 17 metres thick.”

David Ferreira, an oceanographer at the University of Reading, who is not one of the authors, called the study “a formidable benchmark” in formulating climate models of the region.

“We strongly depend on the simulation of the sea ice in these models to test possible causes of the Antarctic sea ice expansion,” he said. “Effects of the ozone hole, of melt water from the Antarctic ice sheet, or of sea ice movements are among the plausible candidates, but we are limited by the quality of our models in this poorly-observed region of the world to discriminate between them.” – Climate News Network

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Weather extremes will be the norm as world warms

Weather extremes will be the norm as world warms

The World Bank says the Earth is on an unavoidable path towards a 1.5˚C heat rise by mid-century – but it could reach 4˚C by 2100 unless immediate action is taken to avoid dire impacts for millions of people.

LONDON, 26 November, 2014 − As the planet continues to warm, heat waves and other weather extremes that happen perhaps once in hundreds of years − if ever − would become the “new climate normal”, a World Bank report says.

The consequences for development would be severe: failing harvests, shifting water resources, rising sea-levels, and millions of people’s livelihoods put at risk.

The World Bank report, the third in its Turn Down the Heat series, says even very ambitious mitigation action taken today will not stop global average temperatures reaching about 1.5˚C above their pre-industrial level by the middle of this century. They are already 0.8˚C higher, and likely − on present trends − to reach about 4˚C by 2100.

Poor and vulnerable

“Today’s report confirms what scientists have been saying – past emissions have set an unavoidable course to warming over the next two decades, which will affect the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people the most,” said Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank Group.

“We’re already seeing record-breaking temperatures occurring more frequently, rainfall increasing in intensity in some places, and drought-prone regions like the Mediterranean becoming drier. These changes make it more difficult to reduce poverty. . . They also have serious consequences for development budgets.”

“Tackling climate change is a matter of reason,
but also of justice”

The report was prepared for the Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and the UK independent thinktank, the Overseas Development Institute.

The report’s lead author, Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of PIK, said: “Tackling climate change is a matter of reason, but also of justice. Global warming impacts in the next decades are likely to hit those hardest that contributed least to global greenhouse gas emissions: the global poor.”

Chain of impacts

Dr Bill Hare, founder and CEO of the Berlin-based not-for-profit organisation, Climate Analytics, is another lead author of the report. He said: “Assessing the entire chain of climate impacts − for example, how heat waves trigger crop yield declines, and how those trigger health impacts − is key to understanding the risks that climate change poses to development.”

Many of the worst projected impacts can still be avoided by holding warming below 2˚C, the report says. It analyses the probable impacts of 0.8˚C, 2˚C and 4˚C of extra heat on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services and coastal vulnerability across Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia.

A common threat across the three regions is the risk posed by heat extremes. State-of-the-art climate modelling shows that “highly unusual” extremes − similar to the heat waves in the US in 2012 and in Russia and Central Asia in 2010 − would increase rapidly under a 4˚C emission pathway. It also shows that the risks of reduced crop yields and production losses increase significantly above 1.5˚C to 2˚C.

Key findings across the regions include:

  • Latin America and the Caribbean: Heat extremes and changing rainfall will damage harvests, water supplies and biodiversity. In Brazil, without further adaptation, crop yields could decrease by 2050 by up to 70% for soya and 50% for wheat with 2˚C of warming. Ocean acidification, sea level rise, cyclones and temperature changes will affect coastal livelihoods, tourism, health, food and water security, particularly in the Caribbean.
  • Middle East and North Africa: A large increase in heat waves, combined with warmer average temperatures, will put intense pressure on already scarce water resources, seriously affecting human consumption and regional food security. In Jordan, Egypt, and Libya, harvests could fall by up to 30% with 1.5˚ to 2˚C warming by 2050. Migration and climate-related pressure on resources may increase the risk of conflict.
  • Western Balkans and Central Asia: Melting glaciers and shifts in the timing of water flows will lead to less water resources in summer months and high risks of torrential floods in Central Asia. In the Balkans, a higher drought risk will affect harvests, urban health and energy generation. In Macedonia, yield losses are projected of up to 50% for maize, wheat, vegetables and grapes at 2˚C warming by 2050.

The report adds that forest damage and thawing permafrost in northern Russia could release carbon and methane. With 2˚C warming by 2050, methane emissions could increase by 20% to 30% across Russia. − Climate News Network

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Obama pledge gets dollars flowing into climate fund

Obama pledge gets dollars flowing into climate fund 

Many developing countries are already suffering the impacts of climate change, but a special fund to help them adapt to a warming world has been bolstered by promises of billions of dollars from wealthier nations.

LONDON, 20 November, 2014 − It’s been quite a week for those waiting for some action on climate change.

After US President Obama and China’s President Xi Jinping announced radical plans to cut back on greenhouse gas emissions, Obama then called on nations at the G20 summit in Brisbane, Australia, to agree to a new deal on climate.

And when he backed that up by pledging US$3 billion to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), set up in 2010 to promote low emissions and climate-resilient projects in the developing world, other countries quickly reached for their cheque books.

Paying their dues

Japan says it will be giving $1.5 billion to the GCF. Britain indicated it will be pledging a similar amount.  France and Germany have already announced they will be giving the $1 billion each. Sweden is pledging more than $500 million. And other countries in the developed world are lining up to pay their dues.

The GCF, which operates under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is holding a special High-Level Pledging Conference in Berlin today.

“This week’s announcements will be a legacy of US President Obama,” said Hela Cheikhrouhou, GCF’s executive director. “It will be seen by generations to come as the game‐changing moment that started a scaling‐up of global action on climate change.”

Obama said money paid into the GCF would help developing countries leapfrog some of the dirty industries that fuelled growth in the industrialised world, and will allow them to build clean-energy economies.

“Along with the other nations that have pledged support, this gives us the opportunity to help vulnerable communities with an early warning system, with stronger defences against storm surge, climate resilient infrastructure, to help farmers plant more durable crops,” Obama said.

In the past, calls for cash to support the Fund’s activities in the developing world have been largely unsuccessful. Now the mood seems to have changed.

“It will be seen by generations to come as the game‐changing moment that started a scaling‐up of global action on climate change”

In the US, the Republicans – who now control both houses of Congress – are for the most part firmly opposed to Obama’s new-found zeal for action on the climate.

The White House feels that public attitudes on climate change issues are changing, both within the US and around the globe, but a brave new, fossil fuel-free world is still a long way off.

There are big questions about how the emissions reductions announced in the US-China agreement are to be achieved.

And the pledges to the GCF look impressive, but leaders of the wealthier nations have a tendency for making grand monetary gestures at international gatherings –then not following through with the cash.

Despite this, climate change has been put firmly among the top items on the international agenda. Momentum has also been built towards achieving a new global deal at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris late next year.

Clear message

The past week’s events have also sent a clear message to the fossil fuel industry, and to investors in the sector: many of the most powerful countries in the world now agree that greenhouse gas emissions have to be cut.

The message has not gone down well with Tony Abbott, the Australian prime minister, and host of the G20 summit.

Although Australia is considered by scientists to be one of the countries most vulnerable to global warming, the Abbott government has made known its scepticism on the issue and has rolled back various measures aimed at combating changes in climate.

It has also strongly backed the development of several large-scale coal mining operations on the east coast, adjacent to the waters of the Great Barrier Reef. – Climate News Network

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Insurance industry sleeps through climate alarm calls

Insurance industry sleeps through climate alarm calls

Disasters linked to climate change could cost insurance companies billions of dollars, but a new survey finds that many of them − particularly in the US − are paying scant attention to the threat.

LONDON, 30 October, 2014 − Insurance is all about assessing risk, so you might expect companies in the sector to be intimately involved with one of the most potent risks facing the world – the possibility of catastrophic climate change.

Yet a survey by Ceres, a US not-for-profit group that lobbies for more environmental awareness in the business sector, has found a startling lack of action by most insurers on the issue.

In total, more than 300 insurers − a large proportion of them based in the US − were canvassed and then given various ratings associated with their response to climate change –ranging from “leading” to “minimal”.

“Most of the companies responding to the survey reported a profound lack of preparedness in addressing climate-related risks and opportunities,” the Ceres report says. “Only nine insurers, or three per cent of the 330 companies overall, earned a ‘leading’ rating.”

Forecasting techniques

The Ceres survey examined the structures and management that companies have in place to deal with climate change, their forecasting techniques, how they communicate on the issue with policyholders and investors, and how the companies were dealing with their own carbon emissions.

On all counts, the majority of companies were found wanting, with the relatively smaller companies performing less well than the bigger concerns.

The insurance industry is considerably bigger in the US than elsewhere, but only two of the nine companies that earned leading ratings in the survey are based in the US. Non-US companies that gained a leading rating include the re-insurers Swiss Re and Munich Re, and the XL Group.

Property and Casualty insurers are on the frontline of climate change risks, and “there is compelling evidence those risks are growing”

The survey looked in detail at two key segments of the insurance industry: Property and Casualty (P&C), and Life and Annuity (L&A).

Ceres says P&C insurers are on the frontline of climate change risks, “and there is compelling evidence those risks are growing”.

Hurricane Sandy, which hit the Caribbean and the eastern seaboard of the US in late 2012, resulted in $29 billion of insured losses in the US.

“A tremendous amount of property (both insured and uninsured) is increasingly threatened by sea level rise,” Ceres says.

A report earlier this year by CoreLogic, a financial analysis and advisory company, identified more than 6.5 million homes in the US at risk of storm surge damage, with a total reconstruction value amounting to $1.5 trillion.

“Extreme weather is also exacerbating supply chain risks and causing business interruption losses,” Ceres says.

In 2011, there was serious flooding in Thailand, and international companies with manufacturing plants there suffered between $15 billion and $20 billion in losses.

Profit margins

Most P&C insurers pay inadequate attention to climate risks, but the L&A segment of the industry is even more lax, Ceres says. L&A insurers have trillions of dollars worth of investments that may be affected by climate change. If those investments are not managed with climate change in mind, then profit margins will suffer and companies might struggle to meet their liabilities in the long term.

The insurance industry also isn’t paying nearly enough attention to how global warming will affect human health and mortality, Ceres warns. The survey shows that most health insurers are not preparing for climate change-related temperature extremes, decreasing air quality, and the increased spread of diseases.

“As risk carriers, risk managers and major investors, every insurer should develop and issue a public climate risk management policy for the benefit of their shareholders, policy holders and employees,” Ceres recommends.

Separately, the Bank of England, the UK’s central bank, has written to 30 leading insurance companies asking for information on how they assess the impact of climate change-related events on their operations. – Climate News Network

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Sea rise may still pose a man-sized threat

Sea rise may still pose a man-sized threat

Although new research discounts the likelihood of a two-metre sea rise this century, the predicted impacts of global warming are still bad news for the many millions of people living at or near sea level.

LONDON, 21 October, 2014 − For those who think climate change means deep trouble, some comfort: there is a limit to how deep. Danish-led researchers have looked at all the projections and satisfied themselves that, at the very worst, sea levels this century will rise by a maximum 1.8 metres − roughly the height of an average man.

They report in Environmental Research Letters that they contemplated rates of melting in Greenland and Antarctica, the retreat of mountain glaciers worldwide, and the impact of groundwater extraction for agriculture and industry.

They also looked at all the projections for thermal expansion of the oceans, because warmer water is less dense than colder water and therefore occupies a greater volume. Then they began to calculate the band of possibilities.

“We have created a picture of probable limits for how much global sea levels will rise this century,” said Aslak Grinsted, assistant professor in the Niels Bohr Institute’s Centre for Ice and Climate at the University of Copenhagen. “Our calculations show that seas will likely rise by around 80cm. An increase of more than 180 cm has a likelihood of less than 5%. We find that a rise in sea levels of more than 2 metres is improbable.”

Critical infrastructure

The worst-case scenario, he says, is something that it would be wise to consider for critical infrastructure, such as the Delta Works, a series of construction projects that protect a large area of land in the south-west of the Netherlands, or the Thames Barrier, which aims to prevent London from being inundated by exceptionally high tides and storm surges from the North Sea.

The finding comes with two important provisos: one is that any significant rise remains extremely bad news for people in those regions of the planet that are already more or less at sea level − among them the coral atolls of the tropical oceans, the Netherlands, the Nile Delta, Bangladesh, Venice in Italy, and some of the world’s great maritime cities.

The other is that the man-high limit extends only to 2100, and researchers have repeatedly warned that, once begun, sea level rise will continue for centuries.

The Danish calculations fall into the category of things that could happen: melting in polar waters inevitably means even warmer equatorial waters, and another ominous projection for the near future is that commercially valuable fish could desert the tropics by 2050.

William Cheung, head of the Changing Ocean Research Unit at the University of British Columbia, Canada, and Miranda Jones, an environmental scientist at the same university, considered what would happen if the world warmed by 3°C by 2100.

“The tropics will be the overall losers. This area has
a high dependence on fish for food, diet and nutrition”

They report in ICES Journal of Marine Science that, under such a scenario, tropical fish could move away from their present habitats at a rate of 26 kilometres a decade. Even with a 1°C warming, they would desert their home waters at 15 km a decade.

Altogether, the two scientists considered the possibilities for 802 commercially important species, concluding that such a set of migrations might introduce new potential catches in Arctic waters, but could be very bad news for tropical fishermen, and for the hundreds of millions who depend on fish as a source of protein.

“The tropics will be the overall losers,” Dr Cheung said. “This area has a high dependence on fish for food, diet and nutrition. We’ll see a loss of fish populations that are important to the fisheries and communities in these regions.”

Accelerated rates

Paradoxically, as researchers consistently forecast accelerated rates of melting in polar waters, the Antarctic sea ice in September occupied a greater area than ever before, with the five-day average on September 19 reaching 20 million sq km, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre.

That means that while most of the planet continued to warm, the Antarctic continent and the seas around it were icier, for one season at least.

Such measurements ultimately depend on satellite and aerial surveillance, and according to Claire Parkinson, climate change senior scientist at  the NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre, the anomaly simply reflects the complexity of climate dynamics and the diversity of the Earth’s environments.

“The planet as a whole is doing what was expected in terms of warming,” she says. “Sea ice as a whole is decreasing as expected, but just like with global warming, not every location with sea ice will have a downward trend in ice extent.”

But, overall, the planet is still saying goodbye to ice. The Antarctic’s gain is roughly a third in area of the loss of ice in the Arctic. – Climate News Network

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Oceans’ greater heat explains warming ‘pause’

Oceans' greater heat explains warming 'pause'

New technology is helping scientists to re-assess how much heat is being absorbed by the world’s oceans – much more in some regions than realised, they say.

LONDON, 7 October 2014 – One of the most hotly-argued questions in climate research – whether global warming has slowed or even stopped – appears to have been definitively answered. And the scientists’ conclusion is unambiguous: the Earth continues to warm at a dangerous pace.

All that’s happening, they say, is that the extra heat being produced – mainly by the burning of fossil fuels – is concentrating not in the skies but in the seas. They have found new evidence that backs them up.

Instead of driving up the temperature of the atmosphere quite as fast as predicted, the evidence shows that the heat from greenhouse gas emissions is warming the oceans much more rapidly than had been realised.

In some regions the water appears to have been warming, for over 40 years, more than twice as quickly as thought, for instance in the upper 2,300 feet (700 metres) of the southern hemisphere’s oceans.

Paul Durack from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and colleagues compared direct and inferred sea temperature measurements with the results of climate models. Together the three sets of measurements suggest estimates of northern hemisphere ocean warming are about right.

Serious under-estimate

But the team report in Nature Climate Change their estimate that warming in the southern seas since 1970 could be far higher than scientists have been able to deduce from the limited direct measurements from this under-researched region. Globally, they conclude the oceans are absorbing between 24 and 58% more energy than thought.

The researchers were able to use data from satellites and from a new source – Argo floats, a fleet of more than 3,000 free-floating monitors which drift through the water and measure the temperature and salinity of the upper 6,500 feet (2,000 m) of the ocean.

A year ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Fifth Assessment Report. Professor Chris Rapley, a former director of both the British Antarctic Survey and  the Science Museum in London, told the Climate News Network then of his alarm at what the IPCC said about the oceans.

He said the Earth’s energy imbalance, and evidence that the 93% of the energy build-up absorbed by the oceans continued to accumulate, meant the slow-down in the rise of surface temperatures appeared “a minor and temporary fluctuation”.

Speaking of the latest research, Profesor Rapley told the Network: “The newly reported results of a combination of satellite altimetry measurements of globally mapped sea level rise combined with ocean heat modelling, and a further analysis of the in situ measurements from the Argo buoys, add to the evidence that the so-called ‘pause’ in global warming is confined to surface temperature data, whilst the planet’s energy imbalance continues unabated.

Cold depths

“Once more we need to assess our appetite for risk, and consider seriously what measures we should take to minimise the threats to food and water supplies, the impacts of extreme weather, and the consequences of these to the world economic system and human wellbeing.”

A second study, also published in Nature Climate Change, by scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, concluded tentatively that all ocean warming from 2005 to 2013 had occurred above depths of 6,500 feet, and that it was not possible to detect any contribution by the deep oceans to sea level rise or energy absorption.

Josh Willis, a co-author of this study (which like that by Dr Durack and his colleagues results from the work of NASA’s newly-formed Sea Level Change Team)  said the findings did not throw suspicion on climate change itself. He said: “The sea level is still rising. We’re just trying to understand the nitty-gritty details.”

This study therefore leaves several questions still unanswered. Will more research find evidence that deep water is in fact warming, for instance? Why are the oceans now apparently absorbing more heat than they once did? And if the southern oceans are heating up faster, then may that help to speed up Antarctic ice melt?

One urgent question that needs answering is how much longer the water near the surface can continue to absorb the extra heat which human activities are producing. Another is what will happen when the oceans no longer absorb heat but start to release it. The answers could be disturbing. – Climate News Network

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Surfers fear climate will wipe out big waves

Surfers fear climate will wipe out big waves

Dedicated surfers, deeply involved with monitoring the natural coastal environment around the world, warn that climate change now poses a major threat to this booming leisure industry.

LONDON, 5 October, 2014 − The world’s oceans are alive with surfers enjoying one of the fastest growing leisure activities. It is estimated there are now at least 35 million people around the globe who regularly ride the waves, and many thousands of people are employed in what has grown into a multi-billion dollar industry.

A warming world should be good news for all those artists of the waves. Warming oceans mean more storms, and the theory goes that more storms will lead to ever bigger waves. So why then are surfing websites – the internet is waterlogged with them – full of concern about changes in the climate?

Two studies appearing in the journal Nature Climate Change have made surfers stand up on their boards and reconsider the situation.

A study led by Dr Andrew Dowdy, a researcher at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) predicts that rising temperatures will in fact reduce the number of storms causing big waves by the end of the century on the central east coast of Australia.

Potentially destructive

The storms that do occur could be more intense and potentially destructive – but the consistency of wave patterns will be reduced.

That’s bad news for surfers of the future in that area – one of the world’s surfing hotspots. They’ll just have to move elsewhere. Dowdy told the Climate News Network that his projections only relate to that particular region, and they are not necessarily applicable to other coastal regions.

But another study, led by Mark Hemer, a senior research scientist at CAWCR, indicates that surfers might be having to ride smaller waves in future in other parts of the world as well.

Using ocean modelling techniques, Hemer and his colleagues predict a decrease in annual wave height over more than 25% of the global ocean area by the end of the century. The North Atlantic is likely to see a decrease in wave heights during all seasons, and waves are likely to be smaller in the winter months in the North Pacific and Indian Ocean.

But all is not lost. The study predicts that some regions − including  the waters off the south coast of Australia and New Zealand − will see bigger waves of between 5% and 10% above present size averages during winter months.

Surfers are worried about other climate change related threats to their activities. There are fears that rising sea levels could threaten key surfing areas.

Surfers regularly monitor water conditions – everything from acidity levels to rubbish content and sewage levels in the seas.

Surf zone

The Save the Waves Coalition − a US-based group that lobbies to protect the coastal environment, with a particular focus on what it calls the surf zone − monitors development activities in surfing areas worldwide.

Its “endangered waves” campaign lists projects that threaten key surfing areas – from plans to construct a nuclear power station on the coast of South Africa to a series of coal-fired power plants proposed for the coast of Chile.

And Climate change is seen as a major challenge facing the surfing industry.

“The unfortunate truth is that the threats to surfing habitat are now growing exponentially due to the impacts of man-made climate change,” says the California-based Sustainable Surf organisation. – Climate News Network

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